1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 21, 7:45 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces and
may be in the process of radically reshuffling the command structure of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, indicating a possible purge of senior officers blamed for failures in
Ukraine. Several Russian outlets confirmed that the current Chief of Staff of the Central Military
District, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, will replace the current Commander of the Russian
Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov.
Ukrainian sources previously reported on June
17 that the Kremlin fired Serdyukov for poor performance during the invasion and high casualties
among paratroopers, but ISW could not confirm this reporting at the time.
Several sources are
additionally reporting contradictory claims about replacements for the current Southern Military
District Commander—and overall commander of the Russian invasion of Ukraine–Army General
Alexander Dvornikov:
• Russian reserve officer Oleg Marzoev claimed on June 21 that Russian military officials will soon
appoint General of the Army Sergey Surovikin, the current commander of the Russian Aerospace
Forces, as commander of the Southern Military District (SMD), effectively replacing current
SMD Commander Alexander Dvornikov.
• Investigative journalism group Bellingcat previously reported on June 17 that Russian President
Vladimir Putin planned to replace Dvornikov as the commander of the invasion of Ukraine
following Dvornikov’s excessive drinking and lack of trust among Russian forces.
• Ukraine’s Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported on June 19 that Putin replaced Dvornikov
as the commander of the Ukrainian operation with Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko, the head
of the Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces.
• An unofficial but widely followed Russian Airborne Troops social media page claimed that
Dvornikov has been promoted and that Serdyukov will take his position within the SMD. This
claim is highly unlikely to be true given that pro-Kremlin sources announced Serdyukov’s
retirement.
ISW cannot independently verify these reports and will continue to monitor the situation for
corroboration. However, if these varied reports are all accurate, former Aerospace Forces Commander
Surovikin has replaced Dvornikov (who may have been forced to retire) as commander of the Southern
Military District, but Zhidko has been appointed commander of Russian operations in Ukraine, despite
not directly commanding Russian combat troops in his permanent role. Zhidko currently directs the
body of the Russian Ministry of Defense responsible for maintaining morale and ideological control
within the Russian military, rather than commanding a military district. As ISW previously reported,
Southern Military District Commander Dvornikov was the natural choice to command Russia’s
operations in Ukraine following Russia’s loss in the Battle of Kyiv, as the majority of Russian offensive
operations are occurring within the Southern Military District’s area of responsibility. The appointment
of a separate commander over the Southern Military District, and the replacement of the commander
of the SMD in the middle of major combat operations, is a drastic step that would speak to severe crises
within the Russian high command, and possibly a purge by the Kremlin. Such drastic rotations
within the Russian military, if true, are not actions taken by a force on the verge of a
major success and indicate ongoing dysfunction in the Kremlin’s conduct of the war.
