1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Mason Clark
June 19, 5:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The UK Ministry of Defense assesses that the Kremlin’s continued framing of its invasion
of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than a war is actively hindering
Russian force generation capabilities. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 19 that
Russian authorities are struggling to find legal means to punish military dissenters and those who
refuse to mobilize because the classification of the conflict in Ukraine as a “special military operation”
precludes legal punitive measures that could be employed during a formal war.
ISW has previously
assessed that the Kremlin’s framing of the war as a “special operation” is compounding consistent issues
with poor perceptions of Russian military leadership among Russian nationalists, problems with paying
troops, lack of available forces, and unclear objectives among Russian forces. The Kremlin is continuing
to attempt to fight a major and grinding war in Ukraine with forces assembled for what the Kremlin
incorrectly assumed would be a short invasion against token Ukrainian resistance. The Kremlin
continues to struggle to correct this fundamental flaw in its “special military operation.”
Russian authorities likely seek to use war crimes trials against captured Ukrainian
servicemen, particularly troops that defended Mariupol, to advance its narratives
around the war. Russian sources reported that the authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic
(DNR) plan to hold war crimes tribunals until the end of August 2022 and that at least one of these
tribunals will be held in Mariupol.
These tribunals will reportedly be judged in accordance with DNR
legislation (which notably allows capital punishment, unlike Russian law) and be modeled on the
Nuremberg format for war crimes trials. The trials are a sham attempt to try lawful prisoners of war as
war criminals and support the Kremlin’s false framing of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a ”de-
Nazification” operation. Despite the fact that DNR authorities plan to try Ukrainian servicemen in the
DNR, a source in Russian law enforcement told state-owned media outlet TASS that the deputy
commander of the Azov Regiment and the commander of the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade will both
be transferred to Russia for investigation and trial.
Russian authorities will likely use these trials to
strengthen legal controls of occupied areas and further demoralize Ukrainian defenders by setting a
harsh legal precedent during preliminary tribunals, as well as advancing the Kremlin’s false narrative
of invading Ukraine to “de-Nazify” it.
Key Takeaways
• Concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry
units remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk.
• Russian forces continued to prepare to advance on Slovyansk from southeast of
Izyum and west of Lyman.
• Russian forces are focusing on strengthening defensive positions along the
Southern Axis due to recent successful Ukrainian counterattacks along the
Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
• Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhia area are forcing Russian
forces to rush reinforcements to this weakened sector of the front line.
