1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
June 20, 5:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian
efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.
1
Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar
reported that Russian leadership has set June 26 as the deadline for Russian forces to reach the
Luhansk Oblast administrative border, which will likely result in intensified efforts to take full control
of Severodonetsk and move westward towards the Oblast border.
2
Head of the Luhansk Regional State
Administration Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk except for the
industrial zone as of June 20, which is the first explicit Ukrainian confirmation that Russian forces
control all of Severodonetsk with the exception of the Azot plant.
3
Russian forces will likely continue
efforts to clear the Azot plant and complete encirclement operations south of Severodonetsk and
Lysychansk by driving up the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.
Russian authorities likely seek to leverage the consequences of Russia’s blockade on
Ukrainian grain exports in order to cajole the West into weakening its sanctions. Head of
state-owned propaganda outlet RT Margarita Simonyan stated on June 20 that the famine caused by
Russia’s blockade on grain exports will force the rest of the world to lift sanctions in order to curb
further effects of global famine.
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Simonyan’s statement is especially salient considering a report by the
UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office that Ukraine had generated 12% of global
wheat and barley exports and that Russia’s blockade has trapped over 20 million tons of grain in
storage.
5
The UK Ministry of Defense claimed on June 20 that consistent failures of the Russian
air force have significantly contributed to Russia’s limited success in Ukraine.
6
The UK
MoD emphasized that the Russian air force has continually underperformed and been largely risk-
averse, failing to establish air superiority or give Russian forces a decisive advantage in Ukraine. The
report additionally claimed that training procedures for air force personnel are scripted and designed
to impress senior officials but do not adequately prepare personnel for the challenges of active air
combat.
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian sources stated that the coming week will be decisive for Russian forces
to complete the capture of Severodonetsk and that Russian forces will focus troops
and equipment on the area.
Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk with
the exception of the Azot industrial zone, where fights are ongoing.
Russian sources are likely setting information conditions to justify slow and
unsuccessful advances towards Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of
Lyman.
