1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 16, 7:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials
that the West would not demand any concessions from Ukraine to appease Russia and
will support Ukraine to the end of the war during a visit to Kyiv on June 16. French
President Emmanuel Macron declared that France, Germany, Italy, and Romania are “are doing
everything so that Ukraine alone can decide its fate.”
Macron added that Ukraine “must be able to win”
and pledged to provide six more self-propelled howitzers.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that
Germany will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, and weapons assistance for “Ukraine’s war
of independence.”
Macron, Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President
Klaus Iohannis additionally vowed to back Ukraine’s bid to become an official candidate for European
Union membership.
Sustained Western military support to Ukraine will be essential to enable
Ukrainian forces to liberate Russian-occupied territory.
Ukrainian defense officials explicitly requested Western heavy artillery, unmanned
aerial vehicles, and multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) ahead of a protracted war.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Denys Sharapov and Land Force Command Logistics Commander
Volodymyr Karpenko stated that Ukrainian forces need hundreds of artillery systems, including
infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, as Ukrainian forces have suffered 30% to 50% equipment losses in
active combat.
Sharapov and Karpenko noted that Ukrainian forces need Predator drones and loitering
munitions to accurately strike Russian forces. Sharapov and Karpenko also asked for long-range
precision weapons such as MLRS to defend the entire 2,500 km frontline in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces have already committed about 330,000
servicemen to their invasion of Ukraine without conducting partial or full-scale
mobilization in Russia. Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov
stated that Russian forces grouped 150,000 servicemen into battalion tactical groups (BTGs) and other
formations and involved additional 70,000 troops from air and sea elements, with the remaining
personnel staffing non-combat support units.
Gromov noted that Russian forces committed more than
80,000 servicemen of the mobilized reserve, up to 7,000 reservists of the Russian Combat Army
Reserve (BARS-2021), up to 18,000 members of the Russian National Guard (Rosguardia), and up to
8,000 troops from private military companies. Gromov did not specify if Ukrainian officials included
information about forcibly mobilized servicemen in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR
and LNR) in these numbers. Gromov noted that the Kremlin may still increase the number of Russian
military personnel in Ukraine by executing covert or full mobilization.
Gromov noted that while it is
unknown if the Kremlin will declare mobilization, Russian forces will still need time to execute the
deployment and training of the new personnel whether or not the Kremlin announces full mobilization.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continued to launch ground assaults on Severodonetsk and
settlements along the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to
Lysychansk. Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces are no
longer operating as concrete battalion tactical groups (BTGs), as ISW previously
assessed.
