1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 18, 3:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces made marginal gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk on June 18 but
have largely stalled along other axes of advance. Russian troops are likely facing mounting
losses and troop and equipment degradation that will complicate attempts to renew offensive
operations on other critical locations as the slow battle for Severodonetsk continues. As ISW previously
assessed, Russian forces will likely be able to seize Severodonetsk in the coming weeks, but at the cost
of concentrating most of their available forces in this small area. Other Russian operations in eastern
Ukraine—such as efforts to capture Slovyansk and advance east of Bakhmut—have made little progress
in the past two weeks. Russian forces are continuing to fight to push Ukrainian troops away from
occupied frontiers north of Kharkiv City and along the Southern Axis, but have not made significant
gains in doing so, thus leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counteroffensive and partisan pressure.
The Russian military continues to face challenges with the morale and discipline of its
troops in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate released what it reported were
intercepted phone calls on June 17 and 18 in which Russian soldiers complained about frontline
conditions, poor equipment, and overall lack of personnel.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces secured minor gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk and likely
advanced into Metolkine, but Russian operations remain slow.
• Russian forces continued efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication
along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducted ground and
artillery strikes along the highway.
• Russian forces seek to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of railway
lines around Kharkiv City used to supply Russian offensive operations toward
Slovyansk.
• Russian forces did not take any confirmed actions along the Southern Axis and
continue to face partisan pressure in occupied areas of southern Ukraine.
