1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 17, 7:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations
in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrainian defenses remain strong. Ukrainian
Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces are transferring
tanks, armored personnel carriers, engineering equipment, and vehicles from Svatove, along the
Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Luhansk Oblast, to Starobilsk, just 40 km east of
Severodonetsk.
Social media users reported that Russian forces are likely redeploying equipment from
northern Kharkiv Oblast to Donbas and published footage of Russian heavy artillery arriving by rail in
Stary Osokol, Belgorod Oblast on June 17.
UK Chief of Defense Tony Radakin stated that Russian
forces are “diminishing” in power by committing large quantities of personnel and equipment for
incremental gains in one area.
The Russian military has concentrated the vast majority of its available
combat power to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at the expense of other axes of advance and is
suffering heavy casualties to do so.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russian forces will attack Ukrainian
positions near Donetsk City but reiterated that the new tactic will require additional time
during his address at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on June 17.
Putin stated that
Russian forces will stop what he claimed is Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk City by attacking Ukrainian
fortifications from the rear. Putin may have amplified reports of shelling of civilian areas of Donetsk
City, which Ukrainian officials have denied, to discourage Western officials from supplying weapons to
Ukraine.
Putin also declared that Russian forces will fully complete the “special military operation” in
Ukraine, and noted that Russian and proxy forces will intensify counter-battery combat.
Putin urged
Russian forces to refrain from entirely destroying cities that they aim to “liberate," ignoring the
destruction Russian forces have inflicted on Ukrainian cities and the artillery-heavy tactics Russian
forces are currently employing in Severodonetsk.”
Unconfirmed Ukrainian sources report that the Kremlin fired the Commander of the
Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, due to mass casualties
among Russian paratroopers. Odesa Oblast Military-Civil Administration Spokesperson Serhiy
Bratchuk reported that the Kremlin appointed the current chief of staff of the Central Military District,
Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, as Serdyukov’s replacement and named the Deputy Commander of
the Russian Airborne Forces, Lieutenant General Anatoly Kontsevoi, as the First Deputy Chief of Staff
of the Russian Airborne Forces.
ISW cannot independently confirm these claims or Serdyukov’s exact
role in the invasion of Ukraine, but they, if true, would indicate that Serdyukov is being held responsible
for the poor performance of and high casualties among Russian VDV units, particularly in early
operations around Kyiv. Continued dismissals and possible internal purges of senior Russian officers
will likely further degrade poor Russian command and control capabilities and the confidence of
Russian officers.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful ground assaults against
Severodonetsk and its southeastern outskirts on June 17.
