1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 14, 5:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing
command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belarus remains unlikely to join
the war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Head of Logistics for the Belarusian Armed Forces Major
General Andrei Burdyko announced that the exercise will involve military authorities, unspecified
military units, and logistics organizations and is intended to improve the coherency of command-and-
control and logistics support to increase the overall level of training and practical skills of personnel in
a “dynamically changing environment.”
Despite the launch of this exercise, Belarus remains unlikely
to join the war in Ukraine due to the threat of domestic unrest that President Alexander Lukashenko
faces if he involves already-limited Belarusian military assets in combat.
Any Belarusian entrance into
the war would also likely provoke further crippling sanctions on Belarus. Any unsupported Belarusian
attack against northern Ukraine would likely be highly ineffective, and the quality of Belarusian troops
remains low. ISW will continue to monitor Belarusian movements but does not forecast a Belarusian
entrance into the war at this time.
Russian authorities may be accelerating plans to annex occupied areas of Ukraine and
are arranging political and administrative contingencies for control of annexed
territories. Russian military correspondent Sasha Kots posted an image of a map that was displayed
at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum depicting a proposed scheme for the “administrative-territorial”
division of Ukraine following the war on a three-to-five-year transition scale.
The proposed scheme
divides Ukrainian oblasts into Russian “territorial districts" and suggests the manner in which Russian
authorities hope to incorporate Ukrainian territory directly into Russia. Advisor to the Mayor of
Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko additionally outlined a series of indicators that he claimed suggest
that Russian authorities are planning to annex occupied Donetsk Oblast as soon as September 1, 2022.
Andryushchenko stated that the leadership of occupied Donetsk has entirely passed from authorities of
the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) to Russian officials and that Russian educational authorities are
already referring to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson as regions of Russia. Andryushchenko
additionally stated that the financial and legal systems in occupied Donetsk have already transitioned
to Russian systems. Despite the apparent lack of a Kremlin-backed mandate concerning the condition
of occupied areas, Russian authorities are likely pushing to expedite a comprehensive annexation
process in order to consolidate control over Ukrainian territories and integrate them into Russia’s
political and economic environment. However, the Kremlin retains several options in occupied
Ukrainian territory and is not bound to any single annexation plan.
The Russian military leadership continues to expand its pool of eligible recruits by
manipulating service requirements. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok suggested that Russian
authorities are preparing to increase the age limit for military service from 40 to 49 and to drop the
existing requirement for past military service to serve in tank and motorized infantry units.
If true, the
shift demonstrates the Kremlin's increasing desperation for recruits to fill frontline units, regardless of
their poor skills. Kotyenok echoed calls made by other milbloggers to reduce the health requirements
for those serving in rear and support roles.
Kotyenok additionally noted that while Russian recruits
must have clean criminal records to serve, private military companies such as the Wagner Group will
allow those with “mild misdemeanors” into service and that many of these low-level offenders have
been mobilized into combat with Wagner in Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian military leadership will
