1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 12, 6:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces continue to struggle with generating additional combat-capable units. The
UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 12 that Russian forces have been trying to produce more
combat units by preparing to deploy third battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from some units over the
last few weeks.
The UK MoD noted that Russian brigades and regiments normally can generate two
BTGs, but doing so leaves the parent units largely hollow shells. The UK MOD concluded that these
third BTGs will likely be understaffed and rely on recruits and mobilized reservists. Their deployment
will likely adversely impact the capacity of their parent units to regenerate their combat power for quite
some time. BTGs generated in this fashion will not have the combat power of regular BTGs. It will be
important not to overestimate Russian reserves produced in this way by counting these third BTGs as
if they were normal BTGs.
Pro-Russian sources are continuing to spread disinformation to sow anxiety and
resentment among the Ukrainian population. Russian Telegram channels reportedly began
spreading a fake mobilization order on June 12 that they falsely attributed to the Ukrainian General
Staff. The fake order called for the mobilization of all eligible Ukrainian women to report for duty by
“June 31” (sic).
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continued ground assaults in Severodonetsk and blew up bridges
that connect Severodonetsk to Lysychansk across the Siverskyi Donets River in a
likely attempt to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run
from Bakhmut to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.
• Russian forces made incremental gains to the southeast of Izyum and will likely
continue attempts to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest.
• Russian forces continued efforts to push Ukrainian troops back from contested
frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces focused on maintaining defensive lines along the Southern Axis.
