1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, and George Barros
June 11, 6:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to
fight a longer war, though Russian force generation and reserves likely remain poor.
Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated the GUR
received confirmed information that Russian forces have extended their war planning for the next 120
days, extending to October 2022.
Skibitsky said that Russian forces will adjust the plan depending on
their successes in Donbas and noted that the Russian General Staff is modifying their invasion plans
almost every month.
Skibitsky’s statement likely indicates the Kremlin has, at a minimum,
acknowledged it cannot achieve its objectives in Ukraine quickly and is further adjusting its military
objectives in an attempt to correct the initial deficiencies in the invasion of Ukraine. Skibitsky also
claimed that Russian forces have an additional 40 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in reserve, after
having already deployed 103 BTGs to Ukraine. This report is highly unlikely to mean Russian forces
retain 40 full-strength and effective BTGs in Russia. At most, these “BTGs” are likely small collections
of personnel cobbled together from other units. The Russian military is additionally unlikely to be
holding such a significant portion of its force in reserve due to continuing manpower shortages in
existing frontline units.
Ukrainian officials continued to increase their requests for Western offensive and
defensive equipment, particularly regarding capabilities necessary to combat Russian
artillery superiority. Head of the Ukrainian Northern Operational Command Dmytro Krasilnikov
reported that Ukrainian forces are experiencing a shortage in long-range artillery systems, while
Russian artillery continues to overpower Ukrainian infantry. Ukrainian Advisor to Cabinet of Ministers
Oleksandr Danylyuk stated that Russian forces adopted a new unspecified strategy that allows them to
make more careful maneuvers.
Danylyuk added that Russian forces have more resources than Ukraine,
which would prove advantageous in a protracted conflict. Severodonetsk Mayor Oleksandr Stryuk said
that Ukrainian defenders need long-range artillery and air defense systems to strike against advancing
Russian troops in Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces will need consistent Western support, particularly
regarding artillery systems, as Russian numbers and resources take their toll on Ukrainian forces in
increasingly positional warfare.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground offensives within the Severodonetsk
area, but Ukrainian defenders retain control of the industrial area of the city as of
June 11.
• Russian forces likely resumed efforts to cut the T1303 Hirske-Lysyschansk
highway and launched failed assaults on settlements along the T1302 Bakhmut-
Lysychank highway.
• Russian forces continued assaults on settlements southwest and southeast of
Izyum in an effort to resume drives on Slovyansk.
• Ukrainian forces likely resumed counteroffensives northwest of Kherson City on
June 11, south of their previous operations.
• Russian occupation officials distributed the first batch of Russian passports in
Kherson City and Melitopol.
