Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical
Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
December 30
Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Madison Williams, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 30 5:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated
daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces targeted Kyiv using Iranian-made drones on the night of December 29 to 30, a
continuation of an increased pace of drone attacks in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force Command
stated that Russian forces launched 16 Shahed-131 and -136 drones at targets in Ukraine on the night of
December 29 to 30 and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all of them.
Ukrainian officials reported that
Russian forces launched seven of the drones at targets in Kyiv and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all of
them, but one of the drones’ munitions hit an administrative building.
The Russian drone attacks follow a
massive series of Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29
during which Russian forces launched 23 drones, the majority of which were Shaheds.
The Russian military’s
use of 39 drones in the past two days, its use of 30 Shahed 131 and -136 drones on the night of December 18 and
19, and its use of 13 Shahed drones on December 14 represent a significant increase in its recent use of these
systems in Ukraine.
ISW assessed on December 10 that an increased pace of Russian drone attacks may indicate
that Russian forces accumulated more Iranian-made drones after a three-week period (November 17 to
December 7) of not using them or that Russia received or expected to receive a new shipment of drones from
Iran.
Russian forces have likely further increased their pace of drone attacks in an effort to sustain their
campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure given their likely depleted stock of precision missiles.
Ukrainian air defenses have recently proven to be highly effective at shooting down Shahed drones and the
Russian military’s use of these systems in attacks against civilian targets in rear areas is having diminishing
impacts.
The Russian military will likely continue to commit an increased number of these systems to attacks
on civilian targets in Ukraine in its misguided attempt to break the Ukrainian will to fight.
Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the door for further institutionalized corruption
through the manipulation of the Russian domestic legal sphere. Putin approved a decree on
December 29 that exempts all Russian officials, including members of the military and law enforcement
services, from the requirement to make income declarations public.
The decree extends to military officials,
employees of Russian internal affairs organs, those serving in Rosgvardia and law enforcement positions,
employees of the Russian penitentiary system and Investigative System, and individuals seconded to positions
in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
The decree also notably lifts the ban on military
officials receiving “charitable” gifts in connection with their participation in hostilities in Ukraine.
Russian
independent newspaper The Insider noted that this decree could theoretically allow Russian officials involved
in the war to seize the private property of Ukrainian residents of occupied areas because such property could be
legally classed as “charitable gifts.”
ISW continues to report on Putin’s manipulations of domestic law to
quash domestic opposition to the war and enable those who support it.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces targeted Kyiv using Iranian-made drones on the night of December 29 to
30.
Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the door for further institutionalized corruption
in the Russian Federation.
