Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
December 26
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 26, 11 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated
daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25
contrary to some reporting. Putin, in a TV interview, stated that he does not think that the war is
approaching a “dangerous line" and noted that Russia has no choice but to continue to defend its citizens, before
stating that Russia “is ready to negotiate with all parties” involved in the conflict.
Putin did not explicitly state
that Russia was ready to negotiate directly with Ukraine, instead maintaining his false narrative that Ukraine –
which he simply called the “the other side” - had violated Russia’s pre-invasion diplomatic efforts. Putin’s
discussions of negotiations have focused on putative discussions with the West rather than with Ukraine, and
reflect his continual accusations that Ukraine is merely a Western pawn with no real agency.
This statement was
not a departure from that rhetorical line. Putin also stated that he thinks that Russia is “operating in a correct
direction,” which indicates that he has not set serious conditions for negotiations and still wishes to pursue his
maximalist goals.
Putin’s December 25 statement is a part of a deliberate information campaign aimed at
misleading the West to push Ukraine into making preliminary concessions. The Kremlin did not
publish the full transcript of Putin’s interview on its official website in contrast with its normal pattern, possibly
to facilitate the misrepresentation of Putin’s full statement originally broadcasted in Russian and highlight his
vague statement on negotiations.
The Kremlin’s use of the interview clip on the Christmas holiday may also be
a response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent speech at the US Congress amidst the holiday
season.
The Kremlin has been intensifying this information campaign throughout December.
Putin is likely concerned over the lack of support for his war in Ukraine among elites and may be
setting information conditions for the nationalization of their property. Putin pointed out that there
are people in Russia who act solely in their self-interest when responding to a relatively positive interview
question on his sentiments toward Russians’ commitment to the war.
Putin added that 99.9% of Russians would
sacrifice everything for the “motherland.” Putin’s instant criticism of some members of society suggests that he
is focused on those who do not fully support the war rather than on those who do. Putin made similar statements
last week, noting that some businessmen who drain Russia’s money aboard are a “danger” to Russia.
Putin’s
statements are also consistent with the Russian State Duma’s preparations to introduce a bill to increase tax rates
for Russians who had left the country after the start of the “special military operation,” likely as a form of
punishment for evading the war effort.
The Kremlin will likely use funds generated through the tax to fund its
war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian intelligence reported that a Wagner Group-linked Russian officer was appointed
commander of the Russian Western Military District (WMD). The Ukrainian Main Military
Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 26 that former Chief of Staff of the Eastern Military
District Lieutenant General Evgeny Valerivich Nikiforov was appointed as the new commander of the WMD and
that Nikiforov is commanding the Russian western grouping of forces in Ukraine out of a command post in
Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast.
The report states that Nikiforov replaced Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev as WMD
commander (November – December 2022) because Nikiforov is a member of the internal Russian silovik alliance
