Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29
Angela Howard, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 29, 5:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian
critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched
69 cruise missiles and 23 drones at Ukraine and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 54 of the missiles
and at least 11 of the drones.
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck targets, primarily
infrastructure facilities, in Lviv, Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Donetsk oblasts causing widespread
disruptions to energy, heating, and water supplies.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces also
struck targets in Sumy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytsky, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk,
Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense claimed that
Belarusian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian S-300 air defense missile during the wave of Russian
strikes and that wreckage fell onto Belarusian territory.
It is currently unclear whether Ukrainian air
defenses may have been responding to Russian missile launches from Belarusian territory, which
Russian forces have used repeatedly in support of their campaign against Ukrainian critical
infrastructure.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to ongoing Western assessments that it has severely
depleted its stock of high-precision weapons systems amidst the massive strike against Ukraine by
stating that it would never run out of Kalibr missiles.
ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces
have significantly depleted their arsenal of high-precision weapons systems but will likely continue to
threaten Ukrainian critical infrastructure at scale in the near term and cause substantial suffering to
Ukrainian civilians.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated on
December 26 that Russian forces had enough missiles to conduct two or three more large-scale strikes.
ISW assesses that the Russian campaign to break the Ukrainian will to fight through large-scale missile
strikes against critical infrastructure will fail even if the Russians are able to conduct more barrages
than Budanov estimated.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on December 29 Russia’s
unwillingness to commit to genuine negotiations and to recognize Ukraine as an
independent actor in negotiations. Lavrov stated in an interview with a prominent Russian news
source that Russia will not accept Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposed peace plan and
that the Kremlin will not talk to any Ukrainian negotiators under conditions that include the withdrawal
of Russian troops from occupied Ukraine, Russian payment of reparations, and Russian participation
in international tribunals.
Lavrov declared that he cannot determine whether an “adequate,”
independent politician remains in Kyiv with whom Russia can negotiate.
Lavrov claimed that
Zelensky’s refusal to pursue negotiations with Russia in April demonstrated the complete “lack of
independence of [Zelensky] in making important decisions” and the manipulation of the West to
continue hostilities.
Lavrov questioned whether an ”acceptable” politician would emerge under the
"Kyiv regime,” apparently restating the Kremlin’s position that Zelensky is not a legitimate political
leader or acceptable negotiating partner and recommitting Russia to its maximalist goal to drive regime
change in Ukraine.
