Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16
Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Riley Bailey, Katherine Lawlor, Layne
Phillipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 16, 6:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical
Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and carried out one of the largest
missile attacks on Kyiv to date. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny stated
that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 of 76 Russian missiles, of which 72 were cruise missiles of the
Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kh-22 types, and four guided missiles of the Kh-59 and Kh-31P types.
The Kyiv
City Military Administration reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed 37 of 40 missiles targeting Kyiv.
Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian missiles struck nine energy infrastructure facilities and
some residential buildings in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces launched most of their missiles from the Black
and Caspian seas and the Engels airfield in Saratov Oblast.
Russian forces are likely intensifying
their strikes on Kyiv to stir up societal discontent in the capital, but these missile attacks
are unlikely to break Ukrainian will.
Russian strikes continue to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian civilians but are not
improving the ability of Russian forces to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s state electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo stated that restoration of electricity
may be delayed by the December 16 strikes and announced a state of emergency aimed at electricity
market suppliers.
Ukrenergo added that Ukraine’s United Energy System had to cut more than 50% of
energy consumption as a result of the strikes.
Russian National Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev made
inflammatory but irrelevant comments in support of ongoing information operations
that aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine. Medvedev published on December 16 a list
of what he described as legitimate military targets, which included "the armed forces of other countries
that have officially entered the war" in Ukraine.
Medvedev rhetorically questioned whether Western
military aid to Ukraine means that NATO members have entered the war against Russia.
Medvedev
did not explicitly state that the armed forces of NATO members are legitimate military targets nor that
he was stating an official Russian position on legitimate targets in the war in Ukraine.
Medvedev likely
made the comments in coordination with the large-scale Russian missile strikes in an attempt to
weaken Western support for Ukraine by stoking fears of escalation between the West and Russia.
Medvedev has previously made purposefully inflammatory comments in support of other information
operations with the same aims.
Medvedev's past and current inflammatory rhetoric continues to be
out of touch with actual Kremlin positions regarding the war in Ukraine. Russian forces have and will
likely continue to target Western military equipment that Ukrainian forces have deployed in Ukraine,
of course, but there is nothing surprising or remarkable in that fact.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely pressure Belarusian President Alexander
Lukashenko for Russian-Belarusian integration concessions at an upcoming December
19 meeting in Minsk—Putin’s first meeting with Lukashenko in Minsk since 2019.
