1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15
Karolina Hird, George Barros, Riley Bailey, Madison Williams,
and Frederick W. Kagan
December 15, 7:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly
against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed. A
Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed according to
Ukrainian officials’ and ISW’s assessments based on Kremlin statements and actions.
Putin continues to pursue maximalist goals in Ukraine using multiple mechanisms intended to compel
Ukrainians to negotiate on Russia’s terms and likely make preemptive concessions highly favorable to
Russia. This fundamental objective has underpinned the Kremlin’s various military, political,
economic, and diplomatic efforts over the past 10 months in Ukraine.
Various Ukrainian defense officials continue to assess that Putin maintains maximalist goals and seeks
to compel Ukraine to enter negotiations and/or accept a ceasefire to advance Russian objectives.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on December 15 that the ultimate goal of
Russia is the “complete conquest and control over Ukraine,” and noted that recent Russian information
operations have been aimed at compelling Ukraine to enter negotiations with Russia.
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Deputy Chief of
the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov,
stated that Russia seeks to force Ukraine into negotiations in order to generate a strategic pause that
would afford Russian troops time to regroup and regain strength.
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Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief
Valery Zaluzhny emphasized that Russia is seeking to temporarily force Ukraine to agree to stop
fighting in order to gather renewed resources and prepare for renewed future offensive operations.
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Putin is using two simultaneous military efforts to pursue his ultimate objective of
regaining control of Ukraine and securing major territorial concessions. Russia’s current
offensive pushes in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City
area and the ongoing campaign of massive missile strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure are
intended to create realities on the ground that Russia will likely demand Ukraine recognize as the basis
for negotiations.
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Russian troops have reinforced their efforts throughout Donetsk Oblast with freed-
up combat power following the withdrawal from the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast and have been
consistently pursuing territorial objectives, albeit unsuccessfully. ISW continues to assess that Putin
has given the order for Russian troops to complete the capture of the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, and
that current Russian offensive efforts around Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast
are part of the effort to execute that order. Ukrainian officials reiterated that the immediate focus of
Russian efforts is securing territorial gains in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
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Putin likely hopes that
these offensive operations will threaten Ukraine‘s ability to further defend territory and cause
significant damage to Ukrainian combat power so that Ukraine will have no choice but to negotiate a
ceasefire, concede on Russia’s terms, and ultimately allow Russian troops the time to reconstitute and
relaunch new offensive operations in the future. The massive Russian missile strikes against critical
