俄罗斯进攻性战役评估,2022年12月13日

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时间:2023-06-20

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Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13
Karolina Hird, George Barros, Grace Mappes, Madison Williams, and Frederick W.
Kagan
December 13, 6:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military
readiness check on December 13. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered a snap
comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military on December 13. The exercise does not
appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for
an invasion of Ukraine. It involves Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus,
conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over
170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively).
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Social media footage
posted on December 13 showed a column of likely Belarusian infantry fighting vehicles and trucks
reportedly moving from Kolodishchi (just east of Minsk) toward Hatava (6km south of Minsk).
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Belarusian forces reportedly deployed 25 BTR-80s and 30 trucks with personnel toward Malaryta,
Brest (about 15 km from Ukraine) on December 13.
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Russian T-80 tanks reportedly deployed from the
Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, to the Brest Training Ground also in Brest (about
30 km from the Belarusian-Ukrainian Border) around December 12.
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Russia reportedly deployed three
MiG-31K interceptors to the Belarusian airfield in Machulishchy on December 13.
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These deployments
are likely part of ongoing Russian information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional
ground forces might join Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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ISW has written at length about why Belarus is
extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future.
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