Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Angela Howard, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 10, 6:40 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated
daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
An unnamed US defense source told The Times that the Pentagon is no longer insisting that
Ukraine should not strike military targets within Russia.
The source noted that the Pentagon has
changed its perspective on this matter following the recent intensification of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian
civilian infrastructure over the last few months and that the Pentagon has become less concerned regarding the
risk of escalation, including nuclear escalation, with Russia.
The Times suggested that this development is a
“green light” for Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory.
Ukrainian commitments to Western partners
previously stipulated that Ukraine had the right to use force to regain all its territory, including territory seized
by Russia in 2014.
The US has previously not made an effort to prevent Ukraine from striking legitimate military
targets located on sovereign Ukrainian territory, and the alleged statement made by the undisclosed US source
is an extension of the previous policy. International law allows Ukrainian forces to strike legitimate targets even
in Russian territory, especially targets from which Russian forces are launching attacks on Ukrainian civilian
infrastructure.
Russian forces conducted attacks against critical infrastructure targets in southern Ukraine
using a significantly higher number of Iranian-made drones than in previous weeks. Ukrainian Air
Force Command reported on December 10 that Russian forces conducted 15 attacks with Shahed-136 and 131
drones in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 10 of the drones.
Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Kyrylo Tymoshenko stated that one of the successful Russian drone
strikes severely impacted critical infrastructure facilities in Odesa City and that restoration efforts would take
longer than usual.
ISW previously assessed that Russian forces still pose a threat to the Ukrainian energy grid
and civilian population despite Ukrainian air defenses’ high rates of shooting down Russian high-precision
weapons systems.
ISW also previously assessed that Russian forces likely modified the drones for cooler weather
and resumed using Iranian-made drones to strike Ukrainian cities for the first time in three weeks on December
7.
Russian forces have not used a higher number of Iranian-made drones in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure
since October 23.
The increased pace of Russian attacks using Iranian-made drones follows a December 9 NBC
News report that senior US officials stated that Russia is providing an unprecedented level of military and
technical support to Iran in exchange for Iranian-made weapons systems, including drones.
The increased pace
of Russian drone attacks may indicate that Russian forces accumulated more drones over the three-week period
of not using them or that Russia has recently received or expects soon to receive a new shipment of drones from
Iran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is risking the loss of support from former proxy republic
leaders and veterans due to Russian forces’ failure to push Ukrainian forces further west of
Donetsk City and to “defend” Donbas. A former Defense Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s
Republic (DNR), Igor Girkin, who had also led the siege of Slovyansk in 2014, directly criticized Putin for failing
to push Ukrainian forces near Donetsk City out of artillery range even though Putin had identified the protection
of Donbas civilians as one of the objectives of the Russian “special military operation.”
Girkin specifically
criticized Putin’s December 9 statement, which characterized the progress of the special military operation as
“stable,” stating that only Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) see the war as successful. Former
DNR Security Minister Alexander Khodakovsky noted emerging criticism of Putin, observing that Putin’s long
reign has not completely been successful.”
Khodakovsky also noted emerging discussions of the need to change
the state of affairs, alluded to corruption schemes surrounding the reconstruction of Mariupol, and added that
Putin had inherited a rather corrupt society that he cannot fix by removing Russian Chief of General Staff Valery
