1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Layne Philipson, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Mason Clark
December 5, 3:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated
daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, December 5. ISW will resume regular
updates on December 6. This report discusses today’s wave of Russian strikes against
Ukrainian critical infrastructure and the likely Ukrainian UAV strikes against Russian strategic
air bases on December 5.
Russian forces conducted another wave of missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy
infrastructure on December 5. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on December 5 that Russian
forces conducted missile strikes targeting Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odesa,
Vinnetysia, and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot
down 60 of over 70 missiles launched.
Deputy Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko
Kyrylo Tymoshenko stated that the Russian strikes damaged a power supply line in Sumy Oblast.
ISW
previously assessed on December 2 that while Ukrainian and Western-provided air defenses are further
reducing Russia’s dwindling supply of precision munitions, the small percentage of Russian strikes getting
through Ukraine’s air defenses are nevertheless having significant effects on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces likely conducted strikes on two Russian strategic airbases on December 5,
inflicting light damage while demonstrating Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian rear areas and
possibly disrupt Russia’s campaign of strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. The Russian
Ministry of Defense and several milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces used UAVs to strike the Engels-2
airbase in Saratov Oblast (approximately 315 miles from Ukrainian territory) and the Dyagilevo Air Base in
Ryazan Oblast (approximately 285 miles from Ukrainian territory).
Both airbases house elements of Russia’s
strategic bomber fleet, which Russia has employed to strike Ukraine throughout the war. Ukrainian
Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak tweeted that the Kremlin should have known that “if something is
launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point,”
but Ukrainian authorities have not formally claimed responsibility for the strikes as of publication.
Russian
sources claimed that a Ukrainian drone struck aircraft at the Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast, Russia,
damaging strategic bombers and missile carriers.
Russian sources also claimed that a Ukrainian drone
destroyed a Russian fuel truck at the Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast, Russia.
The Russian Ministry of
Defense claimed that the strike intentionally targeted Russian long-range aircraft.
Ukrainian forces likely
sought to disrupt Russian strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to
target Russian strategic assets.
Anger over the Russian military’s inability to prevent the Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic
airbases over 280 miles from Ukrainian positions outweighed praise for the latest round of
strikes against Ukraine within the Russian milblogger community. Russian milbloggers criticized
Russian officials for failing to anticipate and prevent the drone strikes at the Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases
on December 5.
Select milbloggers noted that Russian military officials have not adequately protected the
airbases, with some suggesting that Russian officials did not adequately defend the bases despite knowing that
they were clear targets for Ukrainian strikes.
Several prominent Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian
sabotage and reconnaissance groups must have launched the strike against the Engels-2 air base from inside
Russian territory, asserting either that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are active inside Russia
