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俄罗斯进攻性战役评估，2022年11月27日

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时间：2023-06-20

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27
Grace Mappes and Frederick W. Kagan
November 27, 5:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, November 27. This report
evaluates the defensive positions Russian forces are establishing in eastern Kherson
Oblast and what those positions suggest about Russian expectations for future
operations in this area.
The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River
and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly
threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to
the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trenchlines and concentration areas in eastern
Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the
Dnipro River and Kherson City.
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Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct
operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent
Ukrainian forces from getting across the river, nor are the Russians prioritizing defensive positions to
stop such a crossing. The Russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern
Kherson Oblast that could allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank
of the Dnipro River. The assessment that follows examines the Russian defensive laydown and
evaluates the expectations for the flow of operations likely guiding that laydown exclusively. This
assessment makes no effort to determine whether Ukrainian forces intend to cross or
are capable of crossing the Dnipro River in this region and offers no forecast about
whether or not they will make any such attempt.
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