1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Madison Williams, Yekaterina
Klepanchuk, Nicholas Carl, and Frederick W. Kagan
November 22, 8:30 ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in
Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regain public support for the war in
Ukraine. Kremlin propagandists have begun hypothesizing that Ukrainian forces seek to invade
Belgorod Oblast, and other Russian sources noted that Russian forces need to regain control over
Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, to minimize the threat of a Ukrainian attack.
These claims have long
circulated within the milblogger community, which had criticized the Russian military command for
abandoning buffer positions in Vovchansk in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast following the Russian
withdrawal from the region in September.
Russian milbloggers have also intensified their calls for
Russia to regain liberated territories in Kharkiv Oblast on November 22, stating that such preemptive
measures will stop Ukrainians from carrying out assault operations in the Kupyansk and Vovchansk
directions.
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov also published footage showcasing the
construction of the Zasechnaya Line fortifications on the Ukraine-Belgorod Oblast border.
Wagner
Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin clarified that Wagner is building the Zasechnaya Line after having
changed its name from Wagner Line because “many people in [Russia] do not like the activity of private
military company Wagner.”
Private military companies are illegal in Russia.
Russian claims of an imminent Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast are absurd and only
aim to scare the general public to support the war. Ukraine has no strategic interest in
invading Russia and no ability to do so at such a scale. Ukrainian forces are continuing to
liberate occupied settlements in western Luhansk Oblast following their victory in northern Kharkiv
Oblast.
Support for Russia’s nonsensical invasion is declining among Russian residents of border
regions and the rest of the country as a result of mobilization and military failures. Russian opposition
outlets reported that relatives of mobilized men have ignited protests in 15 Russian regions since the
end of October, with the most notable ones taking place in regions bordering Ukraine.
A Russian
opposition outlet, Meduza, citing two unnamed sources close to the Kremlin, reported that the Russian
Presidential Administration carried out an internal survey in different regions where many expressed
apathy toward the war.
While ISW cannot independently verify Meduza’s report, emerging calls for
demobilization among relatives of mobilized men suggest that Russian propaganda is ineffective in
countering the real-life consequences of the war on the society.
These ridiculous speculations about a fantastical Ukrainian invasion of Russia may also
be part of the Kremlin’s effort to acknowledge and appease the Russian pro-war
nationalist community. Russian milbloggers have repeatedly accused the Kremlin and the Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) of failing to defend Russia, including the newly annexed territories.
The
Kremlin, however, will unlikely be able to reinvade Kharkiv Oblast as demanded by these nationalist
figures.
Prigozhin is also using fearmongering about a fictitious Ukrainian invasion threat and
the construction of the Zasechnaya Line to solidify his power in Russian border regions
and Russia. Belgorod Oblast officials previously halted the construction of the Wagner Line, and the
line’s rebranding alongside other Prigozhin projects in St. Petersburg and Kursk Oblast signifies that
