Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan
November 19, 6:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces are reportedly beginning to reinforce their positions in occupied
Luhansk, Donetsk, and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts with personnel from Kherson Oblast
and mobilized servicemen. The Ukrainian General Staff reported an increase in Russian military
personnel in Luhansk City and noted that Russian forces are housing servicemen in abandoned homes
in Krasne and Simeikyne about 30km southeast of Luhansk City.
Luhansk Oblast Administration Head
Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are transferring the remnants of the Russian airborne units
from right (west) bank Kherson Oblast to Luhansk Oblast.
Luhansk Oblast Military Administration
added that a part of redeploying Russian troops is arriving in Novoaidar, approximately 55km east of
Severodonetsk.
Advisor to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andryushenko also noted the arrival of redeployed
personnel and military equipment to Mariupol, stating that Russian forces are placing 10,000 to 15,000
servicemen in the Mariupol Raion.
Andryushenko stated that newly mobilized men are deploying to
the presumably western Donetsk Oblast frontline via Mariupol. Russian forces are reportedly
attempting to disperse forces by deploying some elements in the Hulyaipole direction in eastern
Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russia will also likely commit additional mobilized forces in the coming weeks,
given that mobilized units of the Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army have
finished their training in Brest Oblast, Belarus.
Russian forces will likely continue to use mobilized and
redeployed servicemen to reignite offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and maintain defensive
positions in Luhansk Oblast.
US intelligence officials stated on November 19 that Russian and Iranian officials
finalized a deal in early November to manufacture Iranian drones on Russian territory.
The US officials stated that the deal could allow Russia to “dramatically increase its stockpile” of Iranian
drones. The Washington Post reported that Russian forces have launched 400 Iranian kamikaze drones
since first using them in the Ukrainian theater in August, and Ukrainian officials have previously stated
that Ukrainian forces down 70% of drones before they can strike their targets.
The US officials stated
that it is unclear what assistance Russia will provide to Iran in return for the drones.
The deepening
relationship between Russia and Iran, specifically in the provision of long-range munitions such as
kamikaze drones and precision missiles, may allow Russian forces to sustain their campaign against
Ukrainian energy infrastructure for a longer period than their diminishing stockpile of munitions would
otherwise allow. This report also suggests that Russia can somehow circumvent Western sanctions to
acquire the microchips needed to program the drones it plans on manufacturing. A Russian milblogger
claimed that the deal allows Russian officials to claim they build Russian drones—thus providing an
informational win—having previously stated that the domestic manufacturing of Iranian drones on
Russian territory humiliates Russia.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces are reportedly beginning to reinforce their positions in occupied
Luhansk, Donetsk, and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts with personnel from Kherson
Oblast and mobilized servicemen.
