Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
November 1
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Madison
Williams, Yekaterina Klepanchuk, and Frederick W. Kagan
November 1, 8:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to
Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia’s reliance on
Iranian-made weapon systems. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence
Directorate (GUR) reported on November 1 that Iranian officials intend to send a
shipment of more than 200 Shahed-136, Mohajer-6, and Arash-2 combat drones to
Russia.
The GUR reported that Iran will send Russia the drones in a disassembled state
and that Russian personnel will assemble them with Russian markings.
CNN reported
on November 1 that unnamed officials from a western country that closely monitors
Iranian weapons programs stated that Iran plans to send a thousand weapons to Russia
by the end of the year, including surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missiles and
combat drones.
This would be the first confirmed instance of Iran sending Russia
advanced precision-guided missiles. Russia likely negotiated the additional Iranian
shipment of weapons systems due to the depletion of its stockpile of cruise missile and
drone systems over the course of the war in Ukraine, particularly during the Russian
campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The GUR reported that Ukrainian air
defenses have shot down more than 300 Shahed-136 drones since Russia starting using
them in Ukraine on September 13.
Russia will likely continue to use drone attacks and
missile strikes against critical infrastructure to try to offset the failures and limitations of
its conventional forces on the frontline. Russian dependence on Iranian-made systems,
and therefore on Iran, will likely increase.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) started its semi-annual fall
conscription drive on November 1, amidst reports of continuing covert
mobilization throughout the country. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu
announced that 2,700 draft committees across 85 federal subjects began the fall
conscription call-up of 120,000 men.
Shoigu also stated that partial mobilization in
Russia concluded. Head of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the
Russian General Staff, Yevgeniy Burdinsky, reiterated that Russia is conscripting 7,500
fewer men than in previous years and noted that partial mobilization postponed the
conscription cycle by one month.
Burdinsky claimed that conscripts will not serve in
occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, or Zaporizhia oblasts this year and will not
participate in combat. Head of the 4th Directorate of the Main Organizational and
Mobilization Directorate of the Russian General Staff Vladimir Tsimlyansky added that
most recruits will deploy to training formations and military units where they will train
for five months, while others will receive specializations based on their skills and
education level.
The Russian MoD has conducted semi-annual conscription call-ups for
decades and should be able to execute this process effectively and efficiently. Any
