Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27
George Barros, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 27, 7:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject the idea of Ukrainian sovereignty
in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations. Putin continued to
reject Ukrainian sovereignty during a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 27. Putin stated
that the “single real guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty” can only be Russia, which “created” Ukraine.
Putin reiterated that it is a “historical fact” that Ukrainians and Russians are fundamentally “one
people” that were wrongly separated into “different states.”
Putin stated on October 26 that Ukraine
has “lost its sovereignty” and become a NATO vassal.
Putin’s statements reject the legal fact that Ukraine is a fully sovereign state, that the Russian
Federation recognized Ukraine’s sovereignty, and that the Ukrainian people exist as a distinct nation.
Putin’s perpetuation of the narrative that Ukraine and Russia are a single people separated into
different states by arbitrary historical circumstance indicates his continued objective to destroy the
Ukrainian state and erase the notion of a Ukrainian people. He added during the question-and-answer
period that “if some part of that single ethnicity at some moment decided that it had reached such a
level as to consider itself a separate people, then one could only respond with respect.”
The many
conditionals in this comment underscore Putin’s rejection of the idea that there is currently any
independent Ukrainian national identity. These statements, along with many Russian actions, must
cause serious reflection on the question of whether Russia’s war against Ukraine is a genocidal action
since genocide is legally defined as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a
national, ethnical, racial or religious group.”
A senior Russian official threatened that Russia could target Western commercial
satellites supporting Ukraine. Russian Foreign Ministry Deputy Director of the Department for
Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Konstantin Vorontsov told the United Nations that the United
States and its allies were trying to use space to enforce Western dominance and that "quasi-civilian
infrastructure may be a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike."
Reuters reported that US National
Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated that the United States will meet any attack on US
infrastructure “with a response.”
Key Takeaways
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject Ukrainian sovereignty in a
way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations.
• A senior Russian official threatened that Russia could target Western commercial
satellites supporting Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive
operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Kreminna-Lysychansk
line.
