Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Katherine Lawlor, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, Angela
Howard, and Mason Clark
October 22, 7pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map
is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces continued to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast while
preparing to conduct delaying actions that will likely be only partially effective. The
Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have completely abandoned their positions
in Charivne and Chkalove (both approximately 33km northwest of Nova Kakhovka), and Russian
officers and medics have reportedly evacuated from Beryslav.
The Ukrainian General Staff added
that Russian forces are also removing patients from the Kakhovka Hospital on the eastern bank
of the Dnipro River, likely to free up hospital beds for Russian military casualties that may result
from the withdrawal across the river.
The Ukrainian General Staff noted that some Russian
elements are preparing Kherson City for urban combat, while other servicemembers continue to
flee the city via the ferry operating in the vicinity of the Antonivsky Bridge.
The UK Ministry of
Defense reported on October 22 that Russian forces completed construction of a barge bridge
alongside the damaged bridge and forecasted that the barge bridge would become a critical
crossing point for Russian forces as Ukrainian forces advance toward Kherson City.
A large part
of the Kherson City population has also reportedly left the city.
Russian forces are preparing a series of delaying actions with mixed efficacy. Russian forces are
likely preparing to destroy the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP), flooding
and widening the Dnipro River to delay any Ukrainian advances.
Russian occupation authorities
in Nova Kakhovka are likely attempting to moderate the resultant flooding; Nova Kakhovka
Occupation head Vladimir Leontyev said on October 22 that Russian authorities are lowering the
volume of water from the reservoir behind the dam to minimize damage in case the KHPP is
destroyed but stayed true to the false narrative that Ukraine, not Russia, would blow the dam.
Ukraine has no interest destroying the dam and every interest in preserving the energy supply in
newly-liberated parts of Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reiterated
that Russian military leadership has moved their officer corps across the river but left newly-
mobilized men on the western bank of the Dnipro River as a detachment left in contact.
Using
such inexperienced forces to conduct a delaying action could prompt a Russian rout if Ukrainian
forces choose to press the attack, as ISW previously assessed.
One Russian milblogger noted that
the situation in Kherson Oblast is dire for Russian troops, noting that it is ”virtually impossible”
for Russia to evacuate troops from the first lines of defense and that only two questions remain:
how to withdraw the final front line of forces, and how to explain the withdrawal to the Russian
population.
Russian occupation authorities ordered the forcible “evacuation” of civilians from
Kherson City on October 22. The Russian Kherson Occupation Administration announced
that “all citizens of Kherson must immediately leave the city” and said that all civilians and “all
departments and ministries of civil administration must now cross over to the [east] bank of the
[Dnipro River].”
The occupation administration cited the “tense” situation at the front,
“increased danger of massive shelling of the city and the threat of terrorist attacks” and provided
instructions for where evacuees can find boats to take them across the river. The occupation
administration encouraged evacuees to bring clothes, valuables, and documents, indicating that
they do not expect a rapid Russian or civilian return to western Kherson. Russian forces expect to
