Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21
Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Frederick
W. Kagan
October 21, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely
intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to
withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational
Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition,
military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via
ferries.
The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men
to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their
withdrawal.
Ukrainian military officials reported that the Russian occupation administration is
preparing the evacuation of imported Russian specialists, Ukrainian collaborators, and Kherson’s
banking system.
Russian occupation administration in Beryslav and humanitarian facilities in Kherson
City also reportedly ceased operations.
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson requires that a Russian detachment left in contact hold
the line against Ukrainian attack, covering other Russian forces as they withdraw. Such a detachment
must be well-trained, professional, and prepared to die for its compatriots to effectively perform that
duty. The deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier
General Oleksiy Hromov, assessed on October 20 that that Russian military leadership may withdraw
“the most combat-capable units” from the left-bank part of the region to the right bank of the Dnipro
river and leave mobilized soldiers in contact to cover the withdrawal.
Russian milbloggers seized on
Hromov’s assessment on October 21 and claimed that Ukrainian officials falsely said that elite units like
the VDV and marines are being replaced by untrained mobilized men in Kherson.
If Hromov’s
assessment is correct, then Russian forces would be setting conditions for a Russian withdrawal to
become a rout. Russia’s poorly trained, newly mobilized reservists are very unlikely to stand and resist
a Ukrainian counterattack if Ukrainian forces chose to attack them and chase the withdrawing forces.
The collapse of a mobilized reservist detachment left in contact would likely lead to a Ukrainian rout of
Russian forces on the same scale as Ukraine’s rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv.
Russian officials have remained cagey about whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin has
ordered a withdrawal from Kherson and are likely continuing to prepare the information space for such
a collapse, as ISW has previously assessed.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dodged a direct
question from reporters addressing the likely withdrawal and directed reporters to the Ministry of
Defense on October 21.
One Russian milblogger noted on October 21 that Russian forces “will receive
bad news from Kherson Oblast” in the coming week and that “November will be very, very hard.”
A
Russian war correspondent told Russian state-controlled television on October 19 that Ukrainian forces
outnumber Russian forces by four to one and that "there will be no good news in the next two months,
that’s for sure … severe territorial losses are likely in these two months, but defeat in one battle does
not mean losing the war.”
