Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20
Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicholas Carl, and
Frederick W. Kagan
October 20, 2022, 7:00pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka
Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on October 20
that Russian forces mined the dam of the Kakhovka HPP and noted that the HPP holds over 18 million
cubic meters of water, which would cause massive and rapid flooding of settlements along the Dnipro
River, including Kherson City.
Zelensky emphasized that the flooding would impact hundreds of
thousands of people.
Russian sources, however, continued to accuse Ukrainian forces of shelling the
Kakhovka HPP and have widely circulated graphics depicting the flood path in the event of a dam
breach.
As ISW reported on October 19, Russian sources are likely setting information conditions for
Russian forces to blow the dam after they withdraw from western Kherson Oblast and accuse Ukrainian
forces of flooding the Dnipro River and surrounding settlements, partially in an attempt to cover their
retreat further into eastern Kherson Oblast.
Continued Russian preparation for a false-flag attack on
the Kakhovka HPP is also likely meant to distract from reports of Russian losses in Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces are likely setting conditions to remove military and occupation elements
from the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of imminent Ukrainian advances.
Kherson City Telegram accounts claimed on October 20 that Russian forces disbanded and looted a fire
station in Kherson City and ferried fire trucks, stolen civilian cars, and other miscellaneous household
items across the Dnipro River to Hola Prystan.
ISW cannot independently confirm those reports. The
Ukrainian service of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty also reported on October 20 that Russian
forces are moving military equipment from the west bank to the east bank of the Dnipro River in the
face of recent Ukrainian advances, and posted satellite imagery that shows a Russian cargo ferry
traveling across the Dnipro River from Kozatske (west bank) to Nova Kakhovka (east bank).
Radio
Liberty noted that the ferry is fully loaded when it arrives at Nova Kakhovka and empty when it returns
to Kozatske and suggested that this movement has been ongoing since early October.
Taken in tandem,
these reports indicate that Russian troops are likely deliberately removing large amounts of personnel
and equipment from the west bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces have likely learned, at least in
part, from their failures during the panicked Russian retreat from Kharkiv Oblast in the face of a
previous Ukrainian counteroffensive. The militarily sensible thing would be to remove men and
equipment in good order to avoid another devastating rout. Such a rout in Kherson could trap Russian
forces and equipment on the west bank of the Dnipro River.
The White House confirmed on October 20 that Iranian military personnel are in
Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine, to assist Russian forces in conducting drone attacks
on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. US National Security Council Spokesperson
John Kirby told reporters that “a relatively small number” of Iranian personnel are in Crimea to train
Russian personnel in the use of unfamiliar Iranian-made drones.
Kirby emphasized that “Tehran is
now directly engaged on the ground and through the provision of weapons that are impacting civilians
and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, that are killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure in
Ukraine” and warned that Russia and Iran will continue to lie about their partnership. Russian officials
