Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19
Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, George Barros, and
Frederick W. Kagan
October 19, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian
retreats and significant territorial losses in Kherson Oblast. Commander of Russian Armed
Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergey Surovikin reported during an appearance on Russian television
that the Russian military leadership has to make “difficult decisions” regarding Kherson Oblast and
accused Ukraine of planning to strike civilian and residential infrastructure in Kherson Oblast.
Kherson Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo relatedly noted that his administration is evacuating the west
bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of a “large-scale” Ukrainian offensive.
Surovikin‘s and Saldo’s
statements are likely attempts to set information conditions for a full Russian retreat across the Dnipro
River, which would cede Kherson City and other significant territory in Kherson Oblast to advancing
Ukrainian troops. Russian military leaders have evidently learned from previous informational and
operational failures during the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast and are therefore
likely attempting to mitigate the informational and operational consequences of failing to defend
against another successful Ukrainian advance.
Russian forces are also setting information conditions to conduct a false-flag attack on
the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). The Russian military may believe that
breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and
prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river. Surovikin claimed on October 18 that
he has received information that Kyiv intends to strike the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power
Plant (HPP), which he alleged would cause destructive flooding in Kherson Oblast.
Saldo echoed this
claim and warned that Ukrainian forces intend to strike dams upstream of Kherson City.
Russian
authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka HPP to
set information conditions for Russian forces to damage the dam and blame Ukraine for the subsequent
damage and loss of life, all while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into
Kherson Oblast. The Kremlin could attempt to leverage such a false-flag attack to overshadow the news
of a third humiliating retreat for Russian forces, this time from western Kherson. Such an attack would
also further the false Russian information operation portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state that
deliberately targets civilians.
Russia continues to use the guise of civilian “evacuations” as a cover for the mass forced
removal of civilians from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Saldo’s announcement of a
mass withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River is likely intended in part to evacuate Russian
occupation officials, collaborators, and other occupation organs in anticipation of imminent Ukrainian
advances, but Russian officials are likely also using the façade of humanitarian necessity to deport large
populations of Ukrainians to Russia, as ISW has previously reported. Russia does not appear to reap
any economic benefits from resettling tens of thousands of unwilling Ukrainians in Russia, suggesting
