1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 10, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W.
Kagan
April 10, 7pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to
gain control of a Russian political party. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that Wagner Group financier
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s growing cooperation with members of the A Just Russia — For Truth party likely indicates that
Prigozhin seeks to gain control over the party.[1] Meduza noted that four members of the party left to form a new movement,
with some members citing the rapprochement between party leader Sergey Mironov and Prigozhin as the reason for their
exit.[2] ISW has consistently reported on the growing relationship between Mironov and Prigozhin and assessed that
Mironov’s advocacy for recognition of Wagner in Russia could trigger further fractionalization within the Kremlin.[3] Two
Kremlin sources and one St. Petersburg government insider claimed that Prigozhin is pursuing a leadership position within
A Just Russia — For Truth’s St. Petersburg branch to compete with St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for influence
in the city. Meduza’s sources claimed that Prigozhin previously was interested in investing in the “Motherland” political
party and may be interested in pursuing a position on the federal level. Mironov, in turn, is likely attempting to revive his
political influence and use Prigozhin as a patron for his political ambitions. Meduza’s interlocutors indicated that the
Russian Presidential Administration is unlikely to allow Prigozhin to gain control of the A Just Russia — For Truth party
due to Prigozhin’s conflict with administration officials and with Beglov.
The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) directly responded to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s
criticisms of its agenda for Russia’s presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), marking
the first time that a Russian government institution has formally responded Prigozhin’s criticism. Prigozhin
criticized the MFA’s work in Africa on April 7, claiming that the Russian MFA does “absolutely nothing” and that Wagner
forces face “enormous difficulties” when interacting with the MFA and other government institutions in the region.[4] The
MFA responded to Prigozhin’s criticism on April 9 and said that it is ready to cooperate with Russian businesses and
entrepreneurs to promote Russian businesses abroad and that a number of upcoming events under Russia’s UNSC
chairmanship are dedicated to African issues.[5] Prigozhin then responded to the MFA, questioning its ability to solve
problems through the UNSC, and published a list of 15 issues that Prigozhin believes require urgent discussion at the UNSC,
most of which relate to support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Africa.[6]
The Russian MFA’s attack on Prigozhin is a continuation of the Kremlin’s efforts to discredit and
undermine Prigozhin. The MFA, other Russian government institutions, and Kremlin affiliates likely seek to shut down
any attempts by Prigozhin to garner public or political support. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) refused to name
Wagner forces as participants in the battle of Bakhmut, referring instead to “assault detachments.”[7] Kremlin
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indirectly accused Prigozhin of deliberately exposing conflicts between the MoD and
Wagner.[8] Russian political scientist Aleksey Mukhin — who contributes to the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Discussion Club
and Russian state media — criticized Prigozhin for pursuing political objectives that endanger Wagner forces in
Bakhmut.[9] Prigozhin likely criticized the Russian MFA agenda in the UNSC in an effort to portray himself as a capable
statesman able to influence foreign affairs and to garner support from the Russian ultranationalist community. Prigozhin
continues to attempt to aggrandize himself by exaggerating Wagner forces’ role in Russian successes in Ukraine and using
his prominence in the Russian nationalist information space to criticize the Russian government.[10]
Russian milbloggers adamantly decried the charging of Russian military doctor and “Union of Donbas
Volunteers” member Yuri Yevich for “discrediting the Russian armed forces,” suggesting that the broad
applications of this new law will likely be a growing source of discontent in the pro-war information
space. Russian authorities reportedly charged Yevich under the discreditation law because of a lecture on tactical medicine
he gave to Rosgvardia employees, which someone reported to the authorities as offering a “negative assessment” of Russian
forces.[11] Yevich fought with Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) militias in Donbas after 2014 and was a part of the ”Union
of Donbas volunteers” following the full-scale invasion in 2022.[12] Yevich became popular in the pro-war Russian
information space for popularizing and advocating for the application of tactical combat medicine on the
battlefield.[13] Several pro-war milbloggers and commentators seized on the news of Yevich’s arrest and criticized Russian
authorities for targeting someone whom they deem to be a true Russian patriot.[14] Many milbloggers noted that Yevich’s
