1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and
Mason Clark
April 7, 5:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and
possibly altered) classified US military documents about the war in Ukraine, indicating
continued fear over the prospect of future Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Russian
information space. The New York Times reported on April 6 that a slate of five-week-old, classified
US military documents are circulating on various social media platforms, reportedly depicting
operational reports and assessments of the capabilities of the Ukrainian military.[1] Bellingcat analyst
Aric Toler noted that the documents circulated online as early as March 4, and it remains unclear why
these documents reached mainstream Western media over a month later.[2] Clearly doctored versions
of the documents which reduce reported Russian losses and inflate Ukrainian casualty numbers are
additionally circulating on Russian Telegram channels.
Regardless of the veracity of the reportedly leaked documents, which ISW will not speculate on, the
response of Russian milbloggers to the New York Times story highlights the fear of prospective
Ukrainian counteroffensives pervading the Russian pro-war information space. While several
prominent Russian milbloggers immediately rejected the validity of the documents and suggested that
they are fakes, they fixated on the possibility that the released documents are disinformation intended
to confuse and mislead Russian military command.[3] One milblogger stated that the document leak
could be part of a larger Ukrainian campaign to mislead Russian forces before a
counteroffensive.[4] Another Russian milblogger noted that there is historical precedent for militaries
disseminating false planning information prior to starting surprise offensives.[5] The milblogger urged
their audience to be cautious in discussing where Ukrainian counteroffensives may take place due to
document leak.[6] The New York Times story has therefore exposed a significant point of neuralgia in
the Russian information space, and responses to the documents suggest that Russian milbloggers may
be increasingly reconsidering the validity of their own assessments and speculations regarding any
potential Ukrainian counteroffensives and their ability to forecast Ukrainian operations.
The Kremlin continues to indicate that it is not interested in legitimate negotiations and
places the onus for any negotiations on the West. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated
at a press conference in Ankara, Turkey on April 7 that Russia does not refuse to negotiate but that
negotiations can only be based on Russia’s claimed “legitimate” interests and concerns.[7] Lavrov
claimed the West has arrogantly ignored Russia’s interests ”with disdain.”[8] The Kremlin retains
Putin’s original maximalist goals for the war in Ukraine and maintains that Russia’s ”legitimate”
interests include international recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, regime
change in Kyiv under Russia‘s calls for ”denazification,” and the ”demilitarization” of
Ukraine.[9] Concerns about losing more occupied territory in Ukraine during an expected upcoming
Ukrainian counteroffensive may be prompting the Kremlin to intensify an ongoing information
