the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023
Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, Karolina Hird, and
Frederick W. Kagan
March 31, 6:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map
archive monthly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on
March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-
Western coalition. The new Foreign Policy Concept paints the West as an anti-Russian and
internationally destabilizing force to a far greater extent than Russia’s previous 2016 Foreign Policy
Concept and explicitly states that the US and its “satellites” have unleashed a hybrid war aimed at
weakening Russia.
1
The new document also heavily stresses Russia's goal of creating a multipolar world
order and subordinates under that goal Russia’s broad foreign policy objectives, which include ending
the United States’ supposed dominance in world affairs.
2
The document asserts that most of humanity
is interested in constructive relations with Russia and that a desired multi-polar world will give
opportunities to non-Western world powers and regional leading countries.
3
Putin previously used
meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 20 through 22 to increase attempts to
rhetorically rally the rest of the world against the West, and the new document likely aims to support
the Kremlin’s attempts to intensify proposals to non-aligned countries to form a more coherent anti-
Western bloc.
4
ISW assessed that Putin’s proposal to form an anti-Western bloc during Xi’s visit to
Moscow was not positively received as Xi refused to align China with Putin’s envisioned geopolitical
conflict with the West.
5
Russia’s declining economic power and degraded military effort in Ukraine
continue to offer little incentive to countries to express serious interest in the proposal. The Kremlin
likely decided to release the new Foreign Policy Concept on the eve of assuming the presidency of the
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in order to set informational conditions for future rhetorical
efforts at the UN aimed at forming an anti-Western coalition.
6
ISW previously assessed that Russia will
likely weaponize its presidency of the UNSC as a method of Russian power projection.
7
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to use high-profile public
statements to portray Belarus as a sovereign state despite its current de-facto occupation
by Russian forces. Lukashenko reiterated boilerplate rhetoric about how he is Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s equal partner in defense of Russia and Belarus by explicitly painting Belarus as the
target of a Western hybrid war – a narrative Lukashenko has promoted since 2020.
8
Lukashenko stated
that he and Putin mutually agreed to deploy Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus to protect Belarus’
”sovereignty and independence.”
9
Lukashenko also stated that he and Putin mutually decided to
partially deploy elements of the Union State’s Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV) to an unspecified
area.
10
Lukashenko stated that nobody should worry that Russia ”captured something” in Belarus and
stated the Russian forces training in Belarus under Belarusian officers are subordinated to Belarusian
forces’.
11
Lukashenko likely seeks to use the narrative that Belarus is a fully sovereign state and Russia’s
