1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2023
Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
March 29, 5:45pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map
archive monthly.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 29 to review strategic and long-term
cooperation agreements that will likely intensify Russia’s and Iran’s bilateral security
relationship. Abdollahian stated that Russian and Iranian officials are in the final stage of signing a
cooperation agreement.[1] Lavrov promoted Iran’s “Hormoz Peace Plan” for security in the Persian
Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and stated that the Kremlin demands an immediate return to the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).[2] Abdollahian and Lavrov likely discussed continued Russian
efforts to procure Iranian weapon systems for use in Ukraine and a finalized agreement for Russia to
provide Iran with Su-35 attack aircraft.[3] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on March 29 that
Iranian Pouya Air Transport resumed regular flights between Tehran and Moscow on March 13 likely
to support weapons transfers.[4] The Ukrainian Resistance Center also reported that Iranian officials
are planning to deliver Shahed-131 drones to Wagner Group personnel and that Wagner personnel have
started training to operate the drones, although ISW has not observed confirmation that Wagner Group
personnel have used Iranian-made drones in Ukraine.[5] ISW previously assessed that Russia is relying
on Iran for military and technological support in Ukraine and that some Iranian personnel are likely in
Ukraine directly supporting Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.[6] Iran is likely attempting to
solidify a bilateral security relationship with Russia in which the two are more equal partners and will
likely increase weapons transfers to Russia in pursuit of this goal.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seized on the recent story of the sentencing
of a Tula Oblast father for his 12-year-old daughter’s antiwar drawing to promote the
Wagner Group’s reputation and ameliorate his own personal image. Prigozhin’s press
service posted a letter on March 28 signed by Prigozhin, Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin, and
Wagner-affiliated director of the “Liga” veteran's organization Andrey Troshev addressed to Tula Oblast
prosecutor Alexander Gritsaenko stating that the signatories consider Gritsaenko’s issuance of a two-
year prison sentence to Aleksey Moskalev unfair.[7] Moskalev was charged with “discrediting the armed
forces” after his 12-year-old daughter Masha drew an antiwar picture with a Ukrainian flag in her school
art class in April 2022.[8] Masha was taken into state custody and now lives in a juvenile shelter, and
Moskalev fled house arrest the night before his sentencing and was sentenced to two years in prison in
absentia.[9] Prigozhin’s letter suggests that Tula Oblast check the legality of Gritsaenko’s sentencing
and recommends that Wagner-affiliated lawyers participate in the case on Moskalev’s side, noting that
it is tragic that both Masha and children of dead Wagner fighters end up in orphanages.[10] Prigozhin’s
response to Moskalev’s sentencing is particularly ironic considering that Prigozhin was initially one of
the biggest and loudest supporters of the law on punishing those who ”discredit” Russian forces.[11] It
is therefore likely that Prigozhin seized on the discourse surrounding Moskalev to further his own
reputation and advocate for the Wagner Group, especially by choosing to highlight the plight of orphans
of Wagner fighters who die in Ukraine.[12] Prigozhin may seek to maintain his own domestic relevance
by continuing to closely involve himself in such developing stories, especially by affiliating his newest
campaign for relevance with Utkin and Troshev—two well-established and notorious Wagner-affiliated
