1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Iran Update
Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, and Nicholas Carl
October 15, 2023
The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that
undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends
that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP)
at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these
updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see
our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.
Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections
address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy
activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these
activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are
assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva
Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Key Takeaways:
1. Palestinian militias continued drone and indirect fire attacks into Israel, primarily southern
Israel. CTP-ISW did not record any reports of infiltrations or small arms clashes in southern
Israel.
2. The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants has continued to
fall after peaking on October 13.
3. LH expanded its campaign against Israeli forces along the Israel-Lebanon border in terms of
pace, location, and actors involved. The IDF spokesperson stated that Iran has instructed LH to
escalate against Israel and thereby impose pressure on the IDF while it prepares for ground
operations into the Gaza Strip.
4. The IDF conducted an airstrike on the Aleppo International Airport, marking the second time
that the IDF has struck this location since the war began on October 7.
5. Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance are messaging that the Hamas-Israel war could
expand geographically into a multi-front conflict. CTP-ISW is closely monitoring the situation
to forecast whether such a scenario is becoming more or less likely.
6. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abdollahian met with senior Hamas and Qatari officials during
an official visit to Doha.
