OCTOBER 2024
The Transatlantic Trade
and Climate Space after
the U.S. 2024 Elections
By Thibault Denamiel and William A. Reinsch
Introduction
Transatlantic cooperation on climate and trade is at a crossroads. The 2024 U.S. election results will
impact how both the U.S. and European economic blocs approach their relationships with each other
and with China. A harder U.S. line on China—a strong possibility under a second Trump administration—
may pose trade deection challenges for the EU economy. Likewise, a second Trump administration
would likely upend current talks around the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum
(GASSA). Moreover, both presidential and legislative elections will aect the conversation around a U.S.
carbon border tax and its potential eects on transatlantic trade. Given the importance of climate action
today, preparation for every possibility is paramount, and this begins with examining possible options.
This white paper assesses how dierent U.S. election outcomes might aect how the United States
approaches climate and trade policy. These ndings lead to a policy roadmap for how U.S. and EU
policymakers can pursue long-term decarbonization measures, showing how ocials can strengthen
the transatlantic relationship on climate and take meaningful steps toward alignment despite potential
obstacles. As part of this research, CSIS conducted interviews with current and former ocials of the
Biden and Trump administrations and the European Union.
STANCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
The two 2024 presidential candidates have adopted drastically dierent approaches in their discussion
of climate policy. Donald Trump has emphasized that fossil fuels should still be a critical part of
the U.S. enery landscape, advocating for regulatory rollbacks and increased domestic production.
His agenda, branded as “enery dominance,” includes measures such as halting further electric
vehicle (EV) deployment initiatives and curbing renewable enery investments. Former president
Trump argues that human activity is only one factor contributing to climate change, asserting that
