PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION: PRIORITY TOPIC MEMO
DECEMBER 2024
REBOOTING AMERICA’S DETERRENCE APPROACH
EMPLOYING A UNITED DETERRENCE STRATEGY
WITH ALLIES AND PARTNERS
With ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East and
rising tensions in the Pacific, strengthening deterrence
will be a key challenge for the next administration.
Reinforcing U.S. efforts in this realm will require that the United States and its allies
develop a unified strategy to effectively manage relations with competitors. China in
particular will be at the top of the list of a complex geostrategic ecosystem of overlapping
challenges. A renewed deterrence strategy should emphasize integration of diplomatic,
informational, military, and economic tools. It will require a coordinated interagency
process beyond limited efforts taken to date. It is crucial to develop advanced, non-kinetic
strategies paired with upholding the U.S. military edge to deter aggression and maintain
peace amid these evolving global challenges. Creating and maximizing the impact of
desired effects will require synchronized international actions. Further, coordinating
aspects of relations with China will serve as an umbrella for broader and shared
assurance and deterrence efforts to address nexuses with Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
The Case for Action
China’s expanding military and economic power and its relationships with destabilizing
states are aimed at reshaping the global order. China’s efforts to displace the United
States in the global order have prompted the United States and its allies to reassess
the requirements of strategic competition. As China’s influence grows, the international
community has embraced a new and stark reality: the post–Cold War era is over, and
we are in a new era of great power competition.
The 2017 and 2022 National Security Strategies and 2018 and 2022 National
Defense Strategies have recognized this shift and emphasized the need for innovative
approaches to address challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Policymakers navigate this complex geostrategic environment against the backdrop of
significant military modernization by China and other countries.
The 2024 Commission on the National Defense Strategy assessed that, despite efforts
over the past two years toward integrated deterrence, the United States has yet to
achieve an actionable approach. As that bipartisan commission explained: “There is a
dire need to better educate the American public to the nature of the threats (including
to the homeland), the importance of U.S. global engagement, and what it will take
in terms of personnel, funding, and (potentially) diversion from normal civic and
economic life if deterrence fails.”
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Deterrence is here to stay. If the United States does not want it to fail, the United
States—and its allies and partners—must get better at it.
Reinforcing U.S.
efforts in deterrence
will require a unified
strategy with allies
to manage relations
with competitors,
emphasizing integration
of diplomatic,
informational, military,
and economic tools.
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