Spenser A. Warren
©2025 Spenser A. Warren
ABSTRACT: This article argues that Russia’s novel nuclear-capable weapons will have a
minor but real impact on Russian war-fighting capabilities in Eastern Europe. Using publicly
available assessments, it evaluates the weapons’ characteristics individually and when taken
together to determine their possible impact on war fighting, deterrence, and arms control.
Additionally, it analyzes Russian war-fighting concepts to project how Russian strategists
think about their use and how they might integrate them into Russian war-fighting concepts.
The study’s conclusions will assist military strategists and policy practitioners as they plan for
a potential regional war on NATO’s eastern flank.
Keywords: nuclear strategy, Eastern Europe, hypersonic weapons, Russian strategy,
European security
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced five novel nuclear delivery systems during his
annual address to the Russian Federal Assembly in 2018. At the time of his speech, only
one system—the Kh-47Ms2 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic cruise missile—was reportedly
in service. Russia deployed three of the five systems in 2023 and claimed to have completed
testing on the remaining two by the end of 2023. To date, the Russian military has used two
of these novel weapons—the Kinzhal and the 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile—as
part of its war in Ukraine.
How will these novel weapons affect Russia’s war-fighting capabilities in Europe? I argue
that these nuclear-capable weapons will enhance Moscow’s war-fighting capabilities—to a
limited degree. While novel weapons are technically revolutionary, they only provide a minor
evolution in Russian capabilities. Hypersonic weapons could increase the speed of Russian
attacks, and Russian leaders allege they improve precision abilities. Both may complicate air
and missile defense efforts, potentially undermining Allied deterrence by denial strategies
along NATO’s eastern flank.
Additionally, their performance may not match Russian claims. The Kinzhal and Tsirkon have
proven more effective than older weapons at overcoming rudimentary Ukrainian air and
missile defense systems in Ukraine. Neither has met Russian expectations, and both remain
vulnerable to advanced American-made defense systems such as the Patriot missile. This
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