风险管理

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时间:2023-04-08

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上传者:战必胜
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RISK MANAGEMENT
"It is my experience, that bold decisions give the best promise of success.
But one must differentiate strategical and tactical boldness and a military
gamble. A bold operation is one in which success is not a certainty but
which in case of failure leaves one with sufficient forces in hand to cope
with whatever situation may arise. A gamble, on the other hand, is an
operation which can lead either to victory or to complete destruction of
one's force. Situations can arise where even a gamble may be justified--
as, for instance, when in the normal course of events defeat is merely a
matter of time, when the gaining of time is therefore pointless and the
only chance lies in an operation of great risk.
Field Marshall Erwin Rommel
1
INTRODUCTION
Military operations are inherently complex, dynamic, dangerous and, by nature, involve
the acceptance of risk. Because risk is often related to gain, leaders weigh risk against
the benefits to be gained from an operation. The commander’s judgment balances the
requirement for mission success with the inherent risks of military operations. Leaders
have always practiced risk management in military decision making. However, the
approach to risk management and degree of success vary widely depending on the
leader's level of training and experience.
Risk management is a process that assists decision makers in reducing or offsetting
risk by systematically identifying, assessing, and controlling risk arising from
operational factors and making decisions that weigh risks against mission benefits.
Risk is an expression of a possible loss or negative mission impact stated in terms of
probability and severity. The risk management process provides leaders and
individuals a method to assist in identifying the
optimum course of action (COA). Risk management must be fully integrated into
planning, preparation, and execution. Commanders are responsible for the application
of risk management in all military operations. Risk management facilitates the
mitigation of the risks of threats to the force.
BACKGROUND
Risk Management is an effective process for maintaining readiness in peacetime and
achieving success in combat without infringing upon the prerogatives of the
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