Defense
economic opportunities; transition from the familiar Cold War threat
to one that is non-nodal, more pervasive, and often nonstate, nonde-
terable, and nondetectable; and reduced cost of information tech-
nology, which has lowered the barriers to competition and tended to
level the technology playing field—that is, technology alone will be
insufficient to ensure American military superiority. More important
is how technology shapes and is employed by the military—how it
promotes transformation. Transformation is important because the
resources of the U.S. military, while the greatest in the world, are
still limited both in materiel and personnel. Limits mean choices,
and in the turbulent global environment, choices mean changes.
Developers of technology are inclined to claim that their prod-
ucts are “transformational.
”
However, even such emerging technolo-
gies as information systems, hypersonic weapons, and unmanned
vehicles are not intrinsically transformational. Their military rele-
vance must be demonstrated in the context of their contribution to
the creation of a truly joint force that can create decisive military
effects in support of a global strategy to defend and promote Ameri-
can national interests globally.
Technology can be evolutionary, that is, contribute systems
that fit within existing operational concepts and organization, or
revolutionary or disruptive, that is, require new operational and
organizational structures to realize an enhanced military capabil-
ity. In general, technologies that are disruptive promote broad
transformation by requiring military organizations to adapt to rad-
ically new capabilities.
Typically 15 to 20 years pass while a weapons system moves
from concept development through engineering development, proto-
typing, manufacturing, and operational evaluation to initial opera-
tional capability. Therefore, to anticipate the impact of new tech-
nologies on transformation in the next decade, it is not necessary to
predict the future of new technology, but rather to look at currently
emerging technologies, such as the unmanned combat aerial vehicle
(UCAV) and the airborne laser boost-phase missile defense system,
and relate them to the emerging military tasks or missions expected
of the armed forces in the future, as well as to the military attributes
assigned to a transformational force.
Overview
Throughout history, technology has been central to warfare,
often giving qualitative advantages to numerically inferior forces.
Typically, the rate of technology development has been relatively
slow and the introduction of new weapons systems even slower,
which has allowed evolutionary development of operational con-
cepts. Today’s accelerated pace of technology development no
longer allows sequential development of operational concepts. In
addition, the current global political environment has placed
demands upon the military that range from engaging in major
regional conflicts to stabilization, reconstruction and peacekeep-
ing, all creating a continuous need for flexible, adaptive systems
and new concepts of operation.
The first purpose of this paper is to describe principal new
developments in technology in the framework of how they can
improve operational effectiveness in the uncertain world of the
21
st
century. The technologies are presented generically rather
than by system, because a broader and more generic technology
base is required to meet evolving opportunities. A second purpose
is to examine the related issue of technology development and
acquisition. Expectations for the rapid introduction of technolo-
gies that promote transformation must be tempered by the mili-
tary requirement for continuous capability, even as new systems
and operational concepts are introduced. Finally, although the
United States leads the world in the development of military sys-
tems, the foundational military science and technology base
shows signs of erosion. This erosion must be arrested if American
military superiority is to be maintained.
The Role of Technology in Transformation
The military that was developed to fight the Cold War in a bi-
polar world must transform to meet current and future challenges.
Retired Vice Admiral Arthur Cebrowski, head of the Office of Force
Transformation, has discussed transformation in the context of three
new strategic elements: globalization of information, ideologies, and
Technology, Transformation, and
New Operational Concepts
by Elihu Zimet, with Robert E. Armstrong, Donald C. Daniel, and Joseph N. Mait
A publication of the
Center for Technology and National Security Policy
National Defense University
SEPTEMBER 2003
Number 31
Horizons
September 2003 Defense Horizons 1
198-473_DH31.qxd 10/29/03 9:24 AM Page 1
