BRADLEY MARTIN, D. SEAN BARNETT, DEVIN McCARTHY
Russian Logistics and
Sustainment Failures
in the Ukraine Conflict
Status as of January 1, 2023
R
ussia invaded Ukraine
on February 22, 2022, on
multiple fronts to estab-
lish Russian dominion on
several provinces where separatist
movements had contested Ukrai-
nian government control. However,
Russian aims were not restricted to
annexing territory (at least initially)
but extended more broadly to chal-
lenge a Ukrainian regime that had
been moving steadily away from
Russia. At the outset of this inva-
sion, the Russian military enjoyed
a reputation as a professional and
modernized force—a reputation
widely accepted in the West (Global
Firepower, undated; O’Brien, 2022).
Clearly, the Russian military’s battle-
field performance has not lived up to
expectations.
There are many explanations for
why the Russian invasion stumbled
so significantly and several pos-
sibilities for the ultimate outcome.
These failures have occurred across
C O R P O R A T I O N
KEY FINDINGS
■ Russia’s failures in the war with Ukraine were due to poor planning
in that it did not correctly assess the logistics requirement, even if
it possessed the capacity.
■ Even if Russia had assessed the threat more effectively, it is not
clear that Russia possessed the required force structure to exe-
cute its plans.
■ Russia ran out of critical supplies early in its campaign to rapidly
seize territory, but this gap appears to be largely the result of
simply underestimating the resistance encountered. Russia did
not provide for adequate capacity because it did not believe such
a capacity would be necessary.
■ However, when the Russian army was required to rely on
extended ground transportation, it became increasingly vulner-
able to interdiction, particularly when Ukraine came into posses-
sion of standoff missile systems.
■ Over the course of the conflict, basic issues of poor maintenance
and supply support, compounded by lack of trained and effective
maintenance personnel, have affected Russia’s ability to carry out
the war. To a degree, inability to carry out even basic sustainment
has led to failure on the battlefield
■ Over the longer term, Russia does not have the capacity for a long
war in the face of economic sanctions. Although it can continue
to generate revenue from oil and gas exports, it does not have the
ability to manufacture advanced weapons or even sufficient mate-
riel to keep its army fielded.
Research Report
