PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION: PRIORITY TOPIC MEMO
JULY 2024
IMPROVING U.S. SPACE CAPABILITIES
IN INTEGRATED DETERRENCE
Once dominated by U.S. government systems, space is
ever more crowded, congested, and contested: It cannot
be thought of as a sanctuary or safe haven.
Space-based systems underpin U.S. military and intelligence prowess, modern
economic systems, and economic growth and vitality. Commercially developed
capabilities continue to grow in absolute and relative importance, and an
increasing number of nations and transnational organizations have access to
these capabilities—not always with benign interests. This paper focuses on
actions the new presidential administration can take in the first 100 days to
leverage space in integrated deterrence.
Capabilities based in space, or reliant on space, play a critical role in maintaining
U.S. and allied national security. While potential peer adversaries such as China
and Russia also use space in similar ways, their reliance on those space systems
for national security objectives may be less than ours. This places constraints on
our ability to deter threats to our space systems purely by threatening adversary
space systems. Instead, deterring conflict in space may require a blending of
diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools along with increased
resilience for U.S. space capabilities.
The Case for Action
In February 2024, the U.S. government announced Russia’s development of
a nuclear weapon aimed at disabling satellites, underscoring the difference in
our reliance on space systems. Such a weapon would theoretically damage a
wide range of systems in space, with little or no ability to differentiate between
a satellite’s country of origin or intended use.
The asymmetric use of space by the United States and potential peer
adversaries is often underappreciated. While Russia and China view their own
space programs as signals of their great power status, they nevertheless are
willing to threaten U.S. and Western operations in the realm, even if doing
so might put their own systems at risk. Russia’s willingness to develop and
potentially use such a system highlights Moscow’s perception of space systems
as a greater vulnerability for the United States.
Space is “not a benign
environment. It’s not
just about keeping
communications or
satellites up. This
is warfighting. The
dependence upon
space for all of the
things we’re doing ...
is ramping up.”
Gen. David Allvin,
Air Force Chief of Staff
MITRE’s mission-driven teams are
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