BACKGROUNDER
No. 3855 | OCTOBER 1, 2024
DOUGLAS AND SARAH ALLISON CENTER FOR NATIONAL SECURITY
This paper, in its entirety, can be found at https://report.heritage.org/bg3855
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Iran Is Inching Toward a Nuclear
Weapons Breakout: What Does
This Mean for the United States?
Robert Peters and Nicole Robinson
The United States is at a critical juncture.
With Iran inching closer to a nuclear
weapon, it is imperative that the United
States and its partners are prepared.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The United States does not want a war in
the Middle East, but it also cannot aord
to accept a nuclear-armed Iran.
As successive U.S. Administrations have
concluded, a nuclear-armed Iran presents
an unacceptable risk to U.S. vital national
security interests.
Introduction
Iran can produce nuclear weapons far more rapidly
than expected. In late April 2024, a senior Iranian
lawmaker stated that there is only a “one-week gap
from the issuance of the order to the first test” of a
nuclear bomb.
1
In July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken appeared to corroborate this statement in
part when he announced that “instead of being at
least a year away from having the breakout capacity of
producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, [Iran]
is now probably one or two weeks away.”
2
An August 2024 International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) report all but confirms these state-
ments. As of August 17, Iran had 363.1 pounds of
uranium enriched up to 60 percent—an increase of
49.8 pounds since the U.N. agency’s May 2024 report.
3
Uranium that is “enriched up to 60% purity is just a
