Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, Nicole Wolkov,
and Mason Clark
February 10, 5pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated
daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on
February 10. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched over 100 missiles against
critical and civil infrastructure throughout Ukraine including S-300 surface-to-air missiles in ground attack
mode and air and sea-based Kh-101/Kh-55 and Kalibr-28 cruise missiles.
The Ukrainian General Staff noted
that Russian forces also launched seven Shahed-type drones and that Ukrainian air defense intercepted 61 of the
cruise missiles.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat noted that Russian forces struck Kharkiv Oblast
with S-300 missiles from the direction of Belgorod Oblast and Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian milbloggers
widely lauded the wave of strikes and claimed they hit energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi,
Dnipropetrovsk, Pavlohrad, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and
Kharkiv oblasts.
Russian claims of the scale and effectiveness of the strikes are overblown in comparison to
official Ukrainian statements, and Russian forces continue to expend already limited stocks of precision
munitions on such strikes.
Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and
ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling
to risk a direct conflict with NATO. Russian forces fired two cruise missiles from the Black Sea that
reportedly crossed Romanian and Moldovan airspace before entering Ukrainian airspace.
Russia’s ongoing
campaign of missile strikes in support of its illegal invasion of Ukraine will continue to generate peripheral risks
outside of Ukraine, such as these overflights or the risk of air defense incidents (as in Poland on November 15,
2022). However, ISW assesses that NATO (and individual member states) are in full control over its responses
and the degree to which it chooses to escalate in response to accidental or intentional Russian overflights or other
provocations. ISW also continues to assess with high confidence that Putin does not seek a war with NATO and
is unlikely to directly risk an escalation.
Recent footage of a failed Russian assault near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast has become the latest
point of neuralgia in the Russian information space. Milbloggers latched onto the footage to launch
several critiques of Russian military leadership.
Russian milbloggers claimed that the same Russian
commanders who oversaw highly attritional assaults by the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade on Pavlivka (near
Vuhledar) in November 2022 are responsible for the effort to capture Vuhledar, and argued that the video
illustrates that these commanders continue to make the same costly mistakes.
One Russian milblogger
specifically stated that Eastern Grouping of Forces commander Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov is
responsible for Russian tactical failures around Vuhledar.
Another Russian milblogger called for public trials to
punish high-ranking officers who repeatedly fail on the battlefield and argued that Russian forces will continue
to repeat the same mistakes if these commanders remain in their positions.
Footage shows these Russian forces
engaging in highly dysfunctional tactics that are far more indicative of the fact that the 155th Naval Infantry
Brigade is likely comprised of poorly trained mobilized personnel than of poor command.
Russian milbloggers
likely blamed Russian commanders to downplay the fact that the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized
personnel will likely continue to result in similar tactical failures throughout Ukraine. Russian milbloggers have
routinely accused Russian commanders of being responsible for tactical failures throughout the war, likely to
shift the overall Russian military failure in Ukraine from the Russian military as an institution onto individuals.
