Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Layne Philipson, Nicole Wolkov, and
Mason Clark
February 8, 8:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map
is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next
major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-
Kreminna line in western Luhansk Oblast has increased markedly over the past week, and Russian
sources are widely reporting that conventional Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive
lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, particularly
northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna.
Geolocated combat footage has
confirmed Russian gains in the Dvorichne area northwest of Svatove.
Russian military command
additionally appears to have fully committed elements of several conventional divisions to
decisive offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, as ISW previously reported.
Elements of several regiments of the 144
th
and 3
rd
Motor Rifle Division (20
th
Combined Arms
Army, Western Military District) and a regiment of the 90
th
Tank Division (Central Military
District), supported by elements of the 76
th
Airborne Division and unspecified Southern Military
District elements, are conducting offensive operations along the entire Svatove-Kreminna line
and are reportedly advancing against Ukrainian defenses.
The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to
offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even
if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant
gains. The Russian offensive likely has not yet reached its full tempo; Russian command has not
yet committed elements of the 2
nd
Motorized Rifle Division (1
st
Guards Tank Army, Western
Military District), which deployed to Luhansk Oblast in January after deploying to Belarus.
Russian forces are gradually beginning an offensive, but its success is not inherent or
predetermined. While Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast now have the initiative (in that Russian
forces are setting the terms of battle, ending the period of Ukrainian initiative from August 2022),
the full commitment of these forces could lead to their eventual culmination along the Svatove-
Kreminna line without achieving their objectives of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.
That culmination would likely provide a window of opportunity for Ukrainian forces to exploit
with their own counteroffensive.
Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia command reportedly assumed
control over a Russian artillery battalion, likely in support of an effort to strengthen
degraded DNR forces ahead of an imminent Russian offensive. A Russian source
published a video appeal from mobilized personnel of the 640
th
howitzer battalion from Saratov
Oblast on February 8 in which they stated that Russian military officials sent them to join DNR
units and that DNR commanders are now trying to transfer them to infantry assault units.
ISW
has not previously observed Russian personnel subordinated to a DNR formation and this claim,
if true, would suggest that Russian forces may be reinforcing degraded DNR formations with
mobilized personnel from Russia itself because DNR formations are unable to replenish losses
themselves. The reported subordination of Russian military personnel to DNR formations may
portend a Russian effort to prepare DNR formations for an expanded role in their zone of
responsibility along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and the transfer of remaining
