Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson,
Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan
February 6, 9:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale
decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February. Ukrainian Defense Minister
Oleksiy Reznikov stated on February 5 that the Ukrainian military is expecting Russia to start its
decisive offensive around February 24 to symbolically tie the attack to the first anniversary of the
Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Reznikov also clarified that the Ukrainian military has not
observed the formation of Russian offensive groups in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv directions or Belarus;
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk noted that Russian
forces are likely concentrating on launching offensive operations in the east rather than in southern
Ukraine.
An unnamed advisor to the Ukrainian military told Financial Times that Russia intends to
launch an offensive in the next 10 days (by February 15), a timeline that would allow Russian forces to
strike Ukrainian positions before the arrival of Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
Luhansk
Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are continuing to deploy reserves
to Luhansk Oblast to strike after February 15.
Select Russian nationalist voices continued to express skepticism towards Russia’s
ability to launch a successful offensive past late February. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger
noted that Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov (who currently
commands Russian forces in Ukraine) has a limited time window to launch a large-scale offensive
operation in Ukraine before it is entirely impossible to execute.
Another ultra-nationalist voice, former
Russian officer Igor Girkin, forecasted that the Russian decisive offensive will not be successful until
Russia mobilizes more manpower, industry, and economy.
Girkin claimed that an attack without such
mobilization would shortly culminate. Both observations highlight that the Russian military command
appears to be in a rush to launch the decisive offensive, likely ahead of the arrival of Western military
aid and the muddy spring season in Ukraine around April that hindered Russian mechanized
maneuvers in spring 2022.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s false
narrative that the provision of German tanks to Ukraine threatens Russian security. Putin
stated on February 2 that German tanks are again threatening Russia, drawing a false parallel with
World War II.
Scholz stated that Putin’s remarks are "a part of a series of abstruse historical
comparisons that he uses to justify his attack on Ukraine."
Scholz added that the West and Ukraine
have a "consensus" that Ukrainian forces will only use Western-provided weapons to liberate its
territories from Russian occupation. Germany’s provision of Leopard tanks does not differ from
Western military provisions of Soviet tanks and kit to Ukraine throughout the war, and Putin’s February
2 reaction is likely a continuation of Russian information operation to discourage Western military aid
to Ukraine ahead of Russia’s decisive offensive. Kremlin information agents are amplifying similar
rhetoric that Ukrainian forces will use Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDM) - which
increase the range of HIMARS to 151km from roughly 80km – to target Russian territory alongside
