1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023
Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, and Mason Clark
June 18, 2023, 6:45pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 2pm ET on June 18. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the June 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the
front on June 18 and made limited territorial gains. Geolocated footage suggests that
Ukrainian forces made limited advances within 30km south of Kreminna.[1]Avdiivka City Military
Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash reported that Ukrainian forces advanced more than a
kilometer north of Avdiivka on the Donetsk City frontline over the past two weeks.[2] Russian sources
claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations south, southwest, and southeast
of Velyka Novosilka on the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia
oblasts and made some localized advances.[3] Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive
operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces
entered the western part of Pyatykhatky (41km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City), southwest of
Orikhiv.[4] Ukrainian Tavrisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Valeriy Shershen stated that
Russian forces continue to counterattack in western Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts, and that
Ukrainian forces have “a lot of work.”[5] Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that
Russian forces continue to transfer personnel and heavy military equipment from around Nova
Kakhovka and Kakhovka in eastern Kherson Oblast to the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline via
Melitopol.[6]
Ukrainian forces may be temporarily pausing counteroffensive operations to
reevaluate their tactics for future operations. Head of the Estonian Defense Forces
Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg stated on June 16 that he assesses "we won't see an
offensive over the next seven days.”[7]The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on June 17 that
Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as Ukrainian command
reexamines tactics.[8] These reports are consistent with ISW’s recent observations of the scale and
approach of localized Ukrainian counterattacks in southern and eastern Ukraine.[9] ISW has
previously noted that Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to
counteroffensive operations and has not yet launched its main effort.[10] Operational pauses are a
common feature of major offensive undertakings, and this pause does not signify the end of Ukraine’s
counteroffensive.
A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) interview with Russian prisoners of war (POWs) indicates
