1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, and Mason Clark
May 9, 2023, 7:15pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declined to use his Victory Day address to make any significant
rhetorical changes and reiterated existing narratives, preparing for a protracted war and framing Russia
as successfully resisting the entire West. Putin stated in his annual address marking the Soviet victory over Nazi
Germany on May 9 that “a real war has been unleashed against Russia” and that Russia has repelled international terrorism
and will continue to “defend” residents in Donbas.[1] Putin has previously claimed the West is waging a global “war” against
Russia.”[2] Putin has previously referred to the Russian military campaign in Ukraine as a ”war” but this rhetoric, whether
an intentional acknowledgement of the scale of the fighting or not, has not corresponded with any changes in the Kremlin’s
approach to the “special military operation.”[3] Putin similarly declined to use recent notable events such as his annual New
Year’s Eve address or his February 2023 address to the Federal Assembly to offer any concrete vision on how to reverse the
Russian military’s setbacks in Ukraine or reframe the war.[4] Putin has instead used these events to reinforce long-standing
rhetorical lines aimed at preparing the Russian public for a protracted war in Ukraine by evoking the memory of World War
Two without calling on Russian society to support full mobilization.[5]
Putin additionally attempted to use Victory Day celebrations to rally Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS) partners, many of which have sought to reduce their reliance on the Kremlin since February
2022. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakh President Kassym-
Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar
Berdimuhamedov, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev joined Putin at the Moscow Victory Day parade in Red
Square.[6] Putin emphasized the importance of CIS leaders attending the event and repeated boilerplate Kremlin rhetoric
that Russia is pursuing a multi-polar world order.[7] Putin’s latest efforts to rally CIS countries was muted by the reluctance
of several Central Asian leaders initially expressed towards attending the Victory Day event, and Lukashenko did not join
the rest of the leaders at an earlier wreath laying ceremony.[8] Lukashenko also did not deliver his traditional Victory Day
address in Minsk, Belarus, although it is not immediately clear why.[9] Other non-Western states have largely rebuffed the
Kremlin’s attempts to coalesce a potential anti-Western coalition, most notably China through its increasing rhetorical
distancing from Russia.[10] ISW has previously assessed that the degradation of Russian military power in Ukraine has
likely made this Russian effort even less attractive to other states.[11]The Victory Day events showcased far less military
equipment than usual (including only a single World War Two–era T-34/85 and no modern tanks, which Russia badly needs
in Ukraine) and demonstrated the further degradation of the Russian military, despite the Kremlin’s attempts in previous
weeks to downplay Victory Day by downsizing parades and outright canceling events.[12]
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seized the Victory Day holiday as an opportunity to mock Putin
and question his judgement. Prigozhin referred to a “happy grandfather” figure who “thinks that he is good” during a
discussion of ammunition shortages and Russia’s future prospects in Ukraine.[13]Prigozhin then rhetorically asked what
Russia and future generations should do and how Russia can win if the “grandfather” turns out to be a “complete asshole.”
Prigozhin also noted that unnamed figures (likely referring to Putin and the senior Russian MoD figures) should stop
showing off on Red Square. Prigozhin is likely referring to Putin, who is often referred to as “grandfather” (or more
specifically “Bunkernyi ded” or “bunker grandfather”), and Prigozhin has previously attacked other senior Russian officials
and officers by name — but has not done so against Putin. Prigozhin has previously attempted to upstage Putin’s authority
through similar rhetorical stunts.[14] Prigozhin’s escalating attacks on Putin may — if the Kremlin does not respond to
Prigozhin’s thinly veiled criticism of Putin on Victory Day — further erode the norm in Putin’s system in which individual
actors can jockey for position and influence (and drop in and out of Putin’s favor) but cannot directly criticize Putin.
Prigozhin announced that Wagner forces will not withdraw from Bakhmut by his previously stated
deadline of May 10, despite the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) failing to provide Wagner with
additional shells. Prigozhin stated on May 9 that Wagner will continue to fight for Bakhmut and will continue to uphold
its demands in the next few days.[15] Prigozhin stated that Wagner did not receive the total ammunition the Russian MoD
allegedly promised it in a May 7 order, and claimed Wagner only received 10 percent of the requested ammunition on May
8. Prigozhin added that the Russian MoD order threatened Wagner with treason if Prigozhin withdrew his forces from
Bakhmut, likely one of the reasons why Prigozhin is not following through on his May 5 threat to withdraw from Bakhmut
