1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023
Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W.
Kagan
May 4, 2023, 5:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4. Ukrainian military sources reported
that Russian forces launched 24 Shahed-131/136s at Ukraine from the direction of Bryansk Oblast and the eastern coast of
the Sea of Azov and that Ukrainian air defense destroyed 18 of the drones above northern, central, and southern regions of
Ukraine.[1] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Russian forces launched 15 of the Shaheds at Odesa
Oblast, 3 of which struck an educational institution.[2] Russian milbloggers claimed that the drones struck military facilities
throughout Ukraine.[3] The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that Russian forces attacked Kyiv overnight with
Shaheds and unidentified missiles for the third time in the last four days, noting that Kyiv has not experienced such a high
intensity of air attacks since the beginning of 2023.[4]
Russian sources continued to respond to the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin. The Russian Investigative
Committee announced that it opened a criminal case “on the fact of a terrorist attack in connection with an attempt to strike
the Kremlin” and further amplified the claim that Kyiv is to blame for the strike.[5] Russian President Vladimir Putin will
reportedly hold a Security Council meeting to discuss the incident on May 5.[6] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman
Dmitry Medvedev called for the “physical elimination” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in retaliation for the
strike.[7] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov baselessly claimed that the US is behind the attack.[8] Several Russian
authorities, including the heads of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Leningrad, and Pskov oblasts introduced bans on drone launches
and flights.[9] State Duma Deputy Aleksandr Khinshtein sent an appeal to the Russian Ministry of Transport and Federal
Air Transport Agency to introduce a total temporary moratorium on drone use due to the increased threat of drones
associated with the “special military operation.”[10] Russian media aggregator Baza, citing unidentified internal sources,
claimed that residents of Moscow suburbs noticed the drones flying at very low altitudes well in advance of the moment of
contact with the Kremlin Senate Palace building on May 3 but that authorities ignored their reports as “drone
hysteria.”[11] Another Russian source amplified this report and noted that if it is true, it demonstrates how impenetrable
the Russian bureaucratic apparatus is.[12] The milblogger praised the Kremlin’s response as being thoughtful and logical
and dismissed other voices in the information space for being irrational and hysterical.[13]
Russian officials are likely using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades
for the May 9 Victory Day holiday. Russian sources reported that Russian officials have canceled May 9 parades in 21
cities in Russia and occupied Crimea either without offering official justification or citing security reasons.[14] Russian
officials in several cities claimed that they were canceling May 9 events and parades out of concern for participants of the
“special military operation.”[15] ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin will use the May 3 strike to cancel May 9
events and augment its informational effort to frame the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia.[16] The Kremlin
likely hopes to limit typical May 9 events to conceal the degradation of the Russian military because such events
demonstratively showcase advanced Russian military equipment, much of which is either critical to Russian operations in
Ukraine or has been destroyed in 14 months of attritional fighting.[17] The Kremlin also likely hopes to curb May 9 events
out of fears that celebrations honoring deceased servicemembers could become a potential source of domestic backlash for
Russia’s high casualty figures in Ukraine. Russian officials have canceled immortal regiment memorial events in recent
weeks likely for such reasons.[18]
The Kremlin is reportedly continuing its overhaul of domestic security organs. Russian media
aggregator Baza reported that Russian authorities expanded prior mass investigations into the Moscow Central District
Internal Affairs Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) to other district MVD directorates in
Moscow.[19] Baza reported that Russian authorities detained the Bibirevo Raion’s deputy chief of police on allegations of
leaking information as well as two other employees at unspecified MVD departments.[20] The Russian Federal Security
Service (FSB) and the MVD Security Service reportedly started mass checks of MVD departments in Moscow due to the
“leakage of data from Russian security forces at the request of Ukrainian citizens.”[21] The Kremlin appears to be also
overhauling elements of the Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) amid a series of recent arrests and dismissals of
prominent Rosgvardia officials.[22] The Kremlin likely intends to use these investigations and arrests to oust officials who
have fallen out of favor and to consolidate control of internal security organs.[23] ISW has previously assessed that Russian
