1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023
Angela Howard, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko,
and Frederick W. Kagan
April 29, 4:25 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces
from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provide more ammunition to
the Wagner mercenaries. Prigozhin stated in an interview with a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger on
April 29 that the Wagner mercenaries will continue to fight in Bakhmut but will need to “withdraw in
an organized manner or stay and die” if the situation does immediately not improve.
Prigozhin stated
that Wagner needs about 80,000 shells per day — its previous shell allowance prior to apparent
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) efforts to reduce Wagner’s influence. Prigozhin added that
Wagner is only receiving 800 of the 4,000 shells per day that it is currently requesting. Prigozhin
claimed that Wagner and Deputy Commander of Russian Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergei
Surovikin developed a plan to “grind” the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut that deprived Ukraine of its
initiative on the battlefield. Prigozhin’s mention of Surovikin is likely an attempt to publicly affiliate
with Surovikin as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favor is shifting away from Chief of the Russian
General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s network.
Prigozhin is likely attempting to regain
access to more ammunition as Putin is once again reshuffling the Russian military leadership in a way
that may favor Prigozhin.
Prigozhin also continued his efforts to convince the Kremlin to go over to the defensive
in eastern Ukraine. Prigozhin claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive could take place before
May 15 but that the Russian military is not rushing to prepare to repel attacks.
Prigozhin’s threat to
withdraw from Bakhmut may also indicate that Prigozhin fears that the Russian positions in
Bakhmut’s rear are vulnerable to counterattacks.
Prigozhin offered a position as First Deputy Commander of Wagner forces to former
Russian Deputy Defense Minister for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, who
was reportedly dismissed from his position on April 27.
Prigozhin claimed on April 29 that
the Wagner commanders’ council decided to offer Mizintsev a position as deputy commander under
Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin.
Prigozhin also stated in the interview that Mizintsev was
operating on the frontlines and was fired for his intractability.
Russian milbloggers previously
claimed that Mizintsev’s dismissal could have resulted from the Russian Northern Fleet’s lack of
supplies revealed by Wagner-affiliated Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces Mikhail
Teplinsky’s readiness checks.
Mizintsev’s affiliation with Wagner is unclear at this time. It is possible
that his firing was an attempt to improve military supplies to the forces within or affiliated with
