1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov,
and Frederick W. Kagan
April 25, 7pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain
unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. The New
York Times (NYT) reported on April 24 that a senior European official stated that the chances of
Putin “backing down” in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive are “less than
zero.”[1] The official stated that Putin would likely mobilize more soldiers to fight in Ukraine. US
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander said that there is
“very little evidence” to suggest that Putin would alter his strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine
“politically, if not fully militarily.” US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told Voice
of America on April 25 that the US is increasing security assistance to Ukraine because the US expects
that Russia will attempt to go on the offensive as the weather improves.[2]
A Ukrainian military official claimed on April 25 that Ukrainian forces are achieving
“impressive results” in counter-battery combat against Russian forces on the Russian-
occupied eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River.[3] Spokesperson for the Ukrainian
Southern Operational Forces Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces hit and destroyed
Russian artillery systems, tanks, armored vehicles, and air defense systems. Humenyuk added that
Ukrainian forces are working to clear the frontline on the east bank in a “counter-battery mode.”
Humenyuk added that Russian forces are evacuating civilians from the Dnipro River bank area to
move in Russian units, which is simplifying Ukrainian operations.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied ISW’s April 22 assessment about
limited improvements in Wagner’s relations with the Russian military command ahead
of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive. ISW previously assessed that the Russian military
command may have partially repaired its strained relationship with Prigozhin to persuade Russian
President Vladimir Putin to halt offensive operations ahead of the planned Ukrainian
counteroffensive.[4] ISW had also observed a dramatic change in the nature of Prigozhin’s public
interactions with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin as early as beginning of
April.[5] Prigozhin stated that ISW’s assessment is a “fake,” noting that he would not “exchange
ammunition for [his] guys even for friendship with God.”[6]
Prigozhin’s continued instance on his distaste for the Russian military leadership contradicts the
change in Prigozhin’s rhetoric as well as the sudden influx of artillery ammunition after months of
reported shell hunger in Bakhmut.[7] Russian independent outlet Mozhem Obyasnit (We Can
