1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, Layne
Philipson, Angela Howard, and Mason Clark
April 20, 6pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces
daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive
monthly.
The Kremlin demoted the commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet on April 19 amid an
ongoing surprise readiness check that began on April 14. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and
Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District Yury Trutnev announced on April 19 the
“appointment” of Russian Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergei Avakyants to the headquarters
overseeing Russia’s military sports training and patriotic education centers, a clear demotion for one of
the seniormost commanding officers in the Russian Navy.
It is unclear why a Kremlin official initially
announced Avakyants’ reappointment instead of the Ministry of Defense. The Russian Pacific Fleet
reported on April 20 that Avankyants is changing position due to his reaching the Russian Ministry of
Defense’s (MoD) age limit for military service (65 years).
However, Russian state media outlet TASS
reported that its sources claimed that Avakyants’ demotion was not due to his old age.
Several Russian
general officers – including current Russian theater commander in Ukraine and Chief of the General
Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov and Commander-in-chief of the Ground Forces Oleg Salyukov –
have served in the Russian armed forces beyond turning 65. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
announced a surprise readiness check of the Pacific Fleet on April 14 that is still ongoing as of April 20.
Russian state wire TASS reported on April 20 that two sources close to the Russian Pacific Fleet’s
management stated that current Commander of the Russian Baltic Fleet Admiral Viktor Liina may take
command of the Pacific Fleet and that Deputy Chief of the General Staff Vice Admiral Vladimir
Vorobyov may command the Baltic Fleet.
The Kremlin clearly demoted Avakyants from a senior operational commander to a military bureaucrat
overseeing programmatic work, despite Russian officials’ framing of the shift as a new “appointment.”
Avakyants’ demotion may be connected to the poor performance of Pacific Fleet naval infantry (such as
the 155th and 40th naval infantry brigades) around Vuhledar since early 2023. Avakyants alternatively
may have failed in some manner to conduct large-scale drills in the Pacific. Former Russian officer and
ardent nationalist Igor Girkin linked Avakyants’ dismissal to the Pacific Fleet drills and sarcastically
questioned if someone could conduct drills within the Russian MoD, likely advocating for the dismissal
of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Another milblogger welcomed Avakyants’ dismissal,
stating that Russia needs to appoint younger commanders like Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo
Budanov.
A prominent Russian milblogger criticized the Russian military’s ineffective use of
Russian airborne (VDV), naval infantry, and Spetsnaz forces in Ukraine. The milblogger
argued on April 20 that Russian forces are relying on VDV, Spetsnaz, and naval infantry units to
conduct ground attacks in Ukraine due to a lack of high-quality infantry, despite VDV and Spetsnaz
units not initially being prepared for conducting combined arms operations.
The milblogger argued
that VDV, Spetsnaz, and naval infantry units need to carry out their intended purposes and not serve
