1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and
Frederick W. Kagan
April 19, 5pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces
daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive
monthly.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) appears to be conducting a large-scale
overhaul of domestic security organs. Russian state-controlled outlet TASS reported on April 19
that the FSB and the Main Directorate of the Security Service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD)
have been conducting mass checks at the Moscow Central District Internal Affairs Directorate and
several Moscow district police offices for the past several weeks due to “the leakage of data from Russian
security forces at the request of Ukrainian citizens.”
Another Russian source noted that the FSB and
MVD have already detained police officers as part of this investigation.
Russian outlets reported that
the suspected police officers leaked personal data on Russian security forces to external individuals,
some of whom are Ukrainian citizens.
The reported FSB and MVD raids on the Moscow police
departments are occurring against the backdrop of a series of arrests and dismissals of prominent
members of Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) leadership.
The Kremlin may be pushing for such
arrests and investigations in order to conduct an overhaul of the domestic security apparatus to oust
officials who have fallen out of Kremlin favor and consolidate further control internal security organs.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on April 19 that Ukrainian
forces are already conducting some counteroffensive actions. Malyar stated that Ukrainian
forces will never preemptively announce when the counteroffensive starts and reiterated that Ukrainian
forces aim to liberate all Ukrainian territory.
Malyar also reported that Russian forces are
concentrating on offensives in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka directions and that Russian
forces have concentrated weapons, equipment, and all professional units – including Wagner Group
forces, Spetsnaz, and airborne forces (VDV) – around Bakhmut.
Malyar noted that Ukrainian
counteroffensive actions will be both offensive and defensive in nature given the complex nature of the
battlefield.
Russian forces continue to use Shahed drones and other lower-precision systems to
offset the degradation of Russia’s precision munition supply. Russian forces launched 12
Shahed-131/136 drones at southern Ukraine from the Sea of Azov on the night of April 18 to 19, 10 of
which Ukrainian air defense shot down.
Ukrainian United Coordination Press Center of the Southern
Defense Forces Head Nataliya Humenyuk noted on April 19 that the Shahed strike was a deliberate
attempt to find and destroy Ukrainian air defense systems.
Russian milbloggers have recently
discussed the importance of targeting Ukrainian air defense capabilities in advance of any potential
Ukrainian counteroffensives, and the Shahed strikes were likely intended in part to set conditions to do
so.
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuri Ihnat noted that Russia has used almost all of its
strategic missile stockpile since September 11, 2022, and that Ukrainian forces have shot down 750 of
the total 850 missiles that Russian forces have launched at Ukrainian during this period.
