Iran Update Special Edition, October 7, 2023
Nicholas Carl
Hamas has launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel, marking the most
significant escalation between the two sides in decades. Hundreds of Hamas fighters
crossed from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory and attacked nearby border posts, military
sites, and residential areas on October 7.[1] The group also launched a series of large-scale
rocket attacks from the strip into Israeli territory throughout the day.[2] This operation has
injured and killed hundreds of Israeli civilians thus far.[3] Israeli leaders have responded by
describing the attack as an act of war and have given every indication that they will respond
decisively.[4] Previous Israeli response patterns suggest that Israel would likely conduct a
ground operation into the Gaza Strip meant to rout Hamas completely. Hamas leaders
almost certainly considered this strong possibility when planning their attack. But they have
no reason to believe that they could successfully defend against such an operation, given the
relative strength of the Israeli military. This observation raises the question: what is Hamas’
theory of victory? This special edition explores three possible explanations—none of which
are mutually exclusive—that may be driving Hamas’ current actions.
1. Hamas leaders may expect the conflict that they have ignited to expand to include
other Palestinian militias as well as Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance.” Iranian
leaders use this term—the Axis of Resistance—to describe their international partner system
of state, semi-state, and non-state actors.[5] This coalition includes Lebanese Hezbollah,
Syria’s Bashar al Assad regime, Yemen’s Houthi movement, and myriad militias operating in
Bahrain, Iraq, Palestine, and Syria, all of which Iran supports financially, materially, and
politically.[6] Other Iranian-backed Palestinian militias have expressed their readiness to join
the fight against Israel, but there are no indications at this time that non-Palestinian members
of the Axis of Resistance are involved in the conflict.[7] The Axis of Resistance is
nevertheless well-positioned to intervene if its leaders chose to do so given its military
footprints in Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank. In fact, encircling Israel has been one of the
key motivations for Iran’s extensive investment in supporting proxy and partner militias in
these locations.[8]
